The Horn of Africa has re-emerged as a key theater in the evolving global order, propelled not by Western strategy, but by the calculated ascent of Gulf States, led by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. What began as transactional economic engagement has matured into a layered foreign policy strategy, blending commercial interests with geopolitical influence and security imperatives. This transformation signals a new era of Gulf diplomacy, confident, expansive, and increasingly untethered from the traditional Western orbit.

Commanding the Red Sea and adjacent to the Gulf of Aden, the Horn occupies one of the world’s most strategically sensitive corridors. Long neglected after the Cold War, it is once again at the forefront of international attention, drawing the interest of regional and global actors ranging from Iran and Turkey to China, Russia, and Israel. Amid this crowded field, the Gulf States have leveraged their financial clout and diplomatic agility to become defining players, not as inheritors of a Western vacuum, but as architects of a new regional balance.

The UAE exemplifies this strategic shift. Initially focused on commerce, its engagement deepened following the outbreak of the Yemen conflict. The establishment of a military base in Assab, Eritrea, in 2015 marked a turning point, enabling operations across the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Although aspects of this presence were later scaled down, the underlying strategy endured. At its core lies a vision of maritime supremacy: securing trade routes, expanding port infrastructure, and embedding influence along the African coastline. Emirati investments now stretch from Somaliland’s Berbera to Senegal’s Dakar, forming a corridor that links the UAE’s economic interests to a broader geopolitical calculus. By backing entities like Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, Abu Dhabi positions itself to shape future outcomes while safeguarding its strategic assets.

Saudi Arabia’s approach has centered more overtly on diplomacy. Its orchestration of the 2018 rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea and subsequent facilitation of dialogue between Eritrea and Djibouti underscore a deliberate shift toward regional mediation. These initiatives complement Riyadh’s wider diplomatic evolution, evident in its rapprochement with Iran, engagement with the Houthis, and pursuit of multilateral platforms. The creation of the Red Sea Council and its recent association with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation illustrate a broader ambition to recalibrate its global positioning while institutionalizing regional influence.

Qatar, maintaining a distinct trajectory, has carved out a role as a nimble mediator. Through sustained ties with Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, Doha exercises soft power by offering humanitarian support, developmental aid, and neutral platforms for negotiation. Unlike the more assertive postures of its Gulf counterparts, Qatar’s engagement reflects an emphasis on strategic autonomy, seeking to balance regional rivalries while expanding its international diplomatic footprint.

This surge in Gulf activity coincides with a perceptible ebb in Western involvement. The United States’ strategic pivot to Asia, Europe’s introspection in the face of political fragmentation, and a general fatigue with interventionism have all diminished Western presence in the region. Yet, to attribute the Gulf’s rise solely to this absence would overlook the proactive strategies now at play. Gulf States are not merely inheriting space left behind, they are actively constructing new forms of presence through capital, connectivity, and conflict resolution.

The upcoming visit of former President Donald Trump to the Gulf signals continuity in U.S. reliance on these partners. However, the nature of such relationships has evolved. Rather than junior allies, Gulf States increasingly present themselves as equal stakeholders, capable of shaping outcomes and navigating a multipolar global landscape with growing confidence.

Their engagement in the Horn reflects this maturation. Investment is no longer isolated from strategy; diplomacy is no longer secondary to security. Economic interests are embedded within broader efforts to influence political developments and reshape regional dynamics. Mediation, once the domain of global powers, is now a tool for Gulf actors to assert relevance on the world stage. Crucially, this evolution is marked by an embrace of flexibility, allowing for alignment with Western, Eastern, or regional powers as dictated by interest rather than ideology.

As Gulf presence deepens, the implications for the Horn of Africa are profound. Opportunities exist for infrastructure development, political stabilization, and increased regional integration. Yet these are tempered by risks: heightened competition among external powers, greater militarization, and potential erosion of local agency. Much will depend on the capacity of Horn governments to navigate this influx of interest without sacrificing sovereignty or becoming pawns in broader geopolitical rivalries.

Far from being a peripheral subplot to global politics, the Horn has become a critical junction where emerging Gulf ambitions collide with fading Western paradigms. The Gulf States are not simply responding to a shifting order, they are shaping it. Their actions in the Horn illustrate a bold redefinition of power projection, grounded in economic strength, diplomatic outreach, and strategic autonomy. In doing so, they offer a blueprint for how middle powers can assert influence in a fractured and uncertain world.

By Yonas Yizezew, Researcher, Horn Review