Our latest report, examines the renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia and how Pretoria’s unresolved terms set the stage for the 23 September offensive. It maps the actors driving the escalation, from the TPLF’s internal split to the alliance of armed movements, and sets out what each party wants and fears. It also traces how the crisis has fused with Eritrea’s buffer-zone strategy, Sudan’s war and Egypt’s pressure on Ethiopia across the wider Horn of Africa. It also asks why diplomacy fell short before the fighting began.

Read the full report for a comprehensive assessment of Ethiopia’s evolving northern crisis.