Our latest report examines Eritrea’s post-Pretoria trajectory and how selective withdrawal, residual border presence and dual-track engagement with Ethiopian armed groups set the conditions for the current northern escalation.

It maps the shift from residual occupation to active military repositioning along the Assab-Afar and northern Tigray front, traces the evolution of the Tsimdo alignment and the Sudan corridor, and sets out the strategic logic behind Asmara’s buffer-zone posture. It also situates the October diplomatic rupture and the El-Alamein summit within the wider regional contest over Red Sea access and Horn of Africa order.

Read the full report for a comprehensive assessment of Eritrea’s role in Ethiopia’s evolving northern crisis.