Amid escalating tensions in the U.S.–China trade war, Kenyan President William Ruto has embarked on a four-day state visit to China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. Although this marks his third official trip to Beijing since assuming office in 2022, the timing of the visit has sparked significant diplomatic debate. The visit closely coincides with the announcement of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s now-canceled trip to Kenya and Ethiopia – a cancellation widely interpreted as a direct response to Ruto’s China engagement.

Kenya, long considered a reliable partner of the United States, now finds itself at the center of an unfolding geopolitical rivalry. With the U.S. and China locked in a renewed trade war – triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff policy – Nairobi is navigating increasingly fraught terrain. President Trump’s new tariffs apply to over 180 countries, introducing a 10% baseline rate and reciprocal tariffs based on the existing duties imposed on U.S. goods. Declaring the tariff announcement a “liberation day” for American industries, Trump warned against retaliation while signaling openness to renegotiation on trade terms.

China, facing some of the steepest tariffs – up to 145% – has responded with its own 125% counter-tariffs, export restrictions on critical minerals, and blacklisting of U.S. firms. The Chinese government has denounced the U.S. move as a violation of World Trade Organization rules and pledged to resist what it views as unilateral economic coercion. Simultaneously, the Trump administration extended a 90-day reprieve to other countries, offering room for negotiation and signaling that the hard line is uniquely directed at China.

While direct U.S.–China trade talks remain stalled, high-level U.S. diplomatic visits are underway across Latin America, Europe, and Asia. Secretary Rubio and Vice President JD Vance have focused on engaging nations such as Panama, Costa Rica, France, India, and Belgium to rally economic and diplomatic support. These efforts highlight Washington’s strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the Global South. However, in response, Beijing has warned other states not to exploit its trade conflict with Washington for strategic gain. Chinese officials have cautioned that opportunistic maneuvers could severely damage diplomatic and economic relations.

Against this backdrop, President Ruto’s visit is seen by many as part of China’s broader effort to consolidate alliances amid its standoff with the U.S. Prior to Ruto’s trip, President Xi had visited Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia – demonstrating that China’s strategy includes shoring up ties across Asia and Africa. Given that African countries represent key export markets for China and increasingly important political allies, Beijing’s engagement with Kenya appears both tactical and symbolic.

For Kenya, the stakes are high. The country is still reeling from the aftershocks of President Trump’s return to office, particularly in terms of development assistance. Since 2003, the U.S. has invested more than $8 billion in Kenya, supporting efforts to combat HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and food insecurity. Under Trump, much of this aid was slashed. Health services for over 1.5 million HIV-positive individuals suffered critical setbacks, nearly 40,000 jobs were lost, and key programs in health, education, and food security were discontinued. This disruption forced Kenya to seek alternative partners to sustain its development agenda.

President Ruto’s embrace of China comes not just from economic necessity but from a broader strategic recalibration. Kenya’s longstanding alliance with the U.S. reached a high point under President Biden, particularly with Ruto’s 2024 state visit to Washington. During that visit, Biden designated Kenya a “major non-NATO ally” – a first for sub-Saharan Africa – and praised its leadership in peacekeeping and regional stability. These actions were widely viewed as part of Biden’s strategy to counter the growing influence of BRICS nations, especially after Ethiopia and Egypt joined the bloc, challenging Western-led global institutions.

Kenya, not a BRICS member, accepted Biden’s overture in the hopes of renewed strategic alignment with the U.S. However, Trump’s subsequent accusations that Kenya was exploiting American goodwill and his decision to cancel existing aid agreements have cast serious doubt on the reliability of the U.S. as a long-term partner. This policy reversal has provided China with an opening to assert deeper influence in Kenya and the Horn of Africa.

President Ruto has since publicly pledged to strengthen ties with Beijing, highlighting Kenya’s interest in learning from China’s governance model, economic growth, and global influence. With domestic economic challenges mounting, Chinese investment is increasingly seen as critical for Kenya’s future – particularly in the areas of infrastructure, trade, and technology.

In conclusion, Kenya’s position illustrates the complex balancing act faced by many countries in the Global South. As the U.S. and China wage a broader battle over trade and influence, nations like Kenya are forced to make strategic decisions that could shape their economic and political trajectories for decades to come. Whether Nairobi can navigate this evolving landscape without alienating either power remains to be seen – but one thing is clear: Kenya is no longer a passive actor on the sidelines of global diplomacy. It is a key battleground in the emerging contest for 21st-century influence.

By Yabsira Yeshiwas,Researcher,Horn Review