Ethiopia is a consequential country  on the African continent. It is the second most populous African nation, a host  to the headquarters of the African Union, and a country with one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Therefore, a general election in Ethiopia, in which more than 50 million voters  take part, is a significant development worth noting and analyzing. Unfortunately, most of the commentary  provided on the election by western journalists and “experts” is atrociously reductionist. What is presented as analysis ignores the complexities of Ethiopia and lacks the nuance demanded by the reality on the ground. This essay is an attempt to provide a more balanced and realistic perspective.

Most of the internartional commentary and reporting on the election begins with noting that the Prosperity Party is expected to win in a landslide. Then, most commentators problematize this expected outcome. The thrust of their argument depicts the outcome of the election as being mainly the result of autocratic and repressive methods. In particular, they argue that the security situation in Ethiopia makes fair and free elections impossible. Old and tired tropes in which African heads of government are presented as superstitious, violent, and autocratic are also recycled in personalized and sensational attacks against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

But in reality, there are several notable factors that  explain the performance of the Prosperity Party in the election, rather than the lazy stereotypes of the “African Big Man.” Let me start with the factor that I believe is of profound importance. Ethiopia is a nation yearning for unity. Most ordinary Ethiopians are tired of the ethnic division and polarization the political class has propagated for several decades. In this context, not only does Prime Minister Abiy personally embody the religious and ethnic diversity of the country, but he has also managed to orchestrate the merger of eight different ethnic-regional political parties into a single pan-Ethiopian party. The merger of several ethno-nationalist parties into an inclusive national party that tries to institutionalize unity in diversity makes the Prosperity Party very appealing  to most voters. On the other hand, most of the opposition is largely fragmented along ethnic and sectarian lines and does not have a formula to appeal to the political center.

Some parties that emphasize ethnic differences are stuck in the ethnic liberation discourse of a bygone era with a distinct secessionary undertone. On the other end of the spectrum, there are political parties that would like to impose a radical civic republican model that leaves little room for accommodating the ethnic diversity of Ethiopia. By adopting a moderate, centrist position, as compared with these two extremes, and by making room for all Ethiopians, regardless of their ethnic background, the Prosperity Party has assumed an unassailable position. To understand how much of a departure this is, one has to compare the Prosperity Party with the EPRDF, the former ruling front from which the Prosperity Party has evolved. The EPRDF was a coalition of four ethnic political organizations based in the four populous regions  of the highlands of Ethiopia. Ethnic parties from the lowlands were considered to be too primitive to join the EPRDF. For those tired of the rigid and hierarchical ethnic categorization of the EPRDF era, the Prosperity Party  represents a bold political reform that enhances national cohesion. This has given the Prosperity Party a reach and appeal that dwarfs all its opponents.

The other factor worth noting is the economic performance of the incumbent. Despite serious external and internal shocks, including COVID, internal and external conflicts, the Ethiopian economy has shown a very robust rate of growth. In the past five years the average annual GDP growth rate has been 7.5 %.  Due to the bold macroeconomic reforms implemented by the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s economy is one of the fastest-growing economies not just in Africa but globally as well. The IMF projections indicate that Ethiopia is expected to grow by 9.2%  this year. This impressive growth has also been accompanied by a significant reduction in inflation. The economic dynamism of Ethiopia is not just a matter of economic indicators. It can be seen by any objective observer who has witnessed the dramatic transformation of not only Addis Ababa but also several regional urban centers, like Hawassa, Bahir Dar, Gondar, Jimma, Adama, and Jigjiga. The change one sees in these cities is quite visible and impressive, both in its pace and scale. There is no gainsaying that there are some legitimate complaints and grievances  about how these urban renewal projects have been implemented. Nevertheless, the amenities and improvements in quality of life these projects have delivered for most ordinary people, as well as their overall positive economic impact, have made them very popular.

The Prosperity Party’s positive economic track record is not limited to urban centers. Sustained investment in boosting agricultural productivity,  focused on strategic grains like wheat and export crops like coffee, has significantly reduced the national import bill and tripled total export revenue in a span of a few years. Mining and tourism, which have hitherto been neglected, have become important drivers of growth. With the completion of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and with additional mega projects in the pipeline, such as the biggest airport in Africa and a major fertilizer plant being developed in partnership with Aliko Dangote,  Ethiopia’s economic future is bright and promising. The Prosperity Party’s economic performance and policies, even with the persistent challenge of inflation, leave the opposition little room to argue credibly that they could do better.

The incumbent’s strong showing in the election is not just an outcome of its political and economic track record. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system also puts the fragmented opposition at a huge disadvantage. Most of the opposition political parties are organized, either explicitly or implicitly, to appeal to a very narrow ethnic or religious constituency. Although they do not have any clear policy positions and preferences when it comes to economic matters, they have strong and extreme positions with regard to the most contentious political questions, such as the place of ethnic identity in politics and the federal system. Most of these parties hence operate as fringe, single-issue parties in a first-past-the-post electoral system that favors big national parties. Furthermore, the opposition is also undermined by the fact that many of its luminaries have opted to take up arms against the government instead of taking part in electoral politics. Just like political groups of the post-World War I, Weimar Republic of Germany, many in the opposition camp in Ethiopia have little patience and enthusiasm for democratic contest. They are more inclined toward violence as a means of advancing their extremist and exclusionary political objectives.This ambivalence about democracy and propensity toward political violence, as manifested by the likes of the Oromo Liberation Army/Shene, the TPLF, and Fano, undermines democratic contestation in various ways. It securitizes politics and saps energy from peaceful political parties.

The criticism against the ruling party for not being able to put an end to the insecurity occasioned by the insurgency of these groups often fails to take into account the long history and tradition of various provincial lords attempting to wrestle power from the incumbent through violence. Ethiopia’s history, for most of the last few centuries, shows that violent contestation for power by provincial lords has been a dominant feature of its political tradition. The insurgents of today are carrying on that tradition. To counter this tradition and institute a new culture of inclusive and democratic governance, the incumbent has taken several notable measures. It has reformed and strengthened the national electoral management body, which has now emerged as a genuinely independent democratic organ of state. It has offered insurgents repeated opportunities for dialogue and negotiation. It has also organized, through an independent commission, a national dialogue commission aimed at forging national consensus, among other things, on constitutional issues and reform.

In conclusion, particularly with the advent of social media platforms and  increased internet penetration in Ethiopia, the opposition has never had a better opportunity to propagate its views and challenge the incumbent. However, a preference for bullets over ballots, the illicit financial gains of insurgency, internal fragmentation, and an utter lack of political imagination have made the opposition impotent. On the other hand, strong political and economic performance, added to an inherent incumbency advantage, have made the Prosperity Party quite dominant in the electoral landscape. When all of this is amplified by a first-past-the-post system, the incumbent’s overwhelming victory becomes understandable. The argument here is not that Ethiopia has a mature, consolidated democracy  or is running a perfect election. Ethiopia’s democratic transition is still nascent and  faces many challenges. Nevertheless, the reductionist and simplistic commentary being provided by some Western journalists and experts, most of whom do not even speak a single Ethiopian language, does not do justice to the complexities of the Ethiopian state. In a country where poetic riddles (Sämənna Wärq), which literally translates to “Wax and Gold,” are considered one of the highest art forms, one-dimensional analysis will not provide true understanding and illumination. Churchill’s quip about Russia—that “it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”—could very well have been said about Ethiopia. It is too bad that many in the chattering class of foreign “experts and journalists” have found it difficult to understand the essence of Ethiopia, which  is a “ቅኔ”, wrapped in an “እንቆቅልሽ”, inside a “ሚስጥር”. 

By Ambassador Berhanu Tsegaye

State Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Former Ethiopian Ambassador to Djibouti and veteran legal expert with over 30 years in public service, he has held key roles including Attorney General, State Minister of Justice, and senior positions in regional and federal bodies.