The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with an installed generation capacity of 5,150 MW, is the largest hydro-power project in Africa. Ethiopia has long planned to develop infrastructure on the Nile, conceptual roots trace back to feasibility studies conducted during the regime of Emperor Haile Selassie, on the Abbay (Blue Nile). Construction of the GERD began in 2011 at a border site under the leadership of the late prime minister Meles Zenawi, and the project was completed and inaugurated in September 2025 under prime minister Abiy Ahmed.

The GERD is a significant given Ethiopia’s demographic and developmental realities. With an estimated population exceeding 130 million and  significant energy deficits, particularly in rural regions the GERD is a structural developmental necessity not just political ambition.

Ethiopia had consistently stated its willingness to share the benefits of GERD by exporting hydroelectric power to export surplus electricity to neighboring countries. Framing GERD as regional asset, never intend for unilateral use. Following inauguration, the office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia tweeted following the compilation: “Ethiopia takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve.” This declaration reflects Ethiopia’s aim to pursue benefit sharing.

Egypt continues to frame GERD a an existential issue, relying on the 1929 Anglo Egyptian treaty and the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Nile water Agreement to assert veto power over any upstream projects. Ethiopia rejects the validity of these agreements, on the grounds that it was never a signatory and that colonial era arrangement can not bind non-consenting upstream states. Ethiopia views that number as an anachronistic monopoly that ignores the rights of Ethiopian, country that contribute 86% of the water. This position aligns with principles of equitable and reasonable utilization.

The recent announcement by the United States an ally of Egypt, on issue to restart mediation on the GERD raises serious concerns regarding the neutrality and legitimacy of the process. Effective Mediation requires strict adherence to the principle of  neutrality, which entails genuine impartiality and freedom from political influence. Without such neutrality, mediation risk losing the trust of the parties, thereby undermining  its credibility and effectiveness.

Ethiopia’s withdrawal from the Washington talks in 2020 was rooted in concerns  that the proposed agreement was not solely an outcome of trilateral negotiation but had been initialed by Egypt and U.S., implying that the U.S. and World Bank had overstepped their role and proposed drought mitigation measures the favored Cairo. Ethiopia argued that the mediators failed to maintain neutrality and instead showed bias toward one party. Leaving Ethiopia with little confidence that its interests would be fairly represented.

Ethiopia has been one of the three countries willing to resolve the GERD dispute through the African Union led negotiations process. In contrast, Egypt and Sudan sought to involve the UNSC by mobilization the League of Arab States, raises serious question about their lack fidelity to AU-led tripartite process.

From a hydrological perspective, coordinated basin management can increase overall efficiency. Studies, including those affiliated with the Research from the MIT(J-WAFS),”The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An opportunity for collaboration and shared benefits in the Eastern Nile” indicates that difference in reservoir geometry  and climate between GERD and the High Awsan Dam estimates results lower evaporation losses per unit of stored water upstream, particular under coordinated operation.

Estimates suggest Lake Nasser loses approximately 10 to 12 BCM annually to due to the extreme heat and the vast surface area of Lake Nasser. By contrast the GERD’s location located in a deep-canyon, limits loss to roughly 1.5 to 1.7 BCM. By regulating flows and shifting the primary storage upstream, the GERD can effectively conserve water for basin water without necessarily reducing downstream allocations. In policy terminology, this can be interpreted as strategic resource optimization mechanism.

Regional political discourse often frames the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a zero-sum existential crisis. For Ethiopia, rights-based arguments of the past are increasingly neglected in favor of profitable partnerships. The United State is no longer looking for who is “right” under 1959 colonial laws; they are looking for which nation provides the best “deal” for regional stability and U.S. commercial access.

Recent satellite altimetry and monitoring studies, including publication in PNAS Nexus (July 2024) demonstrate that the progression of GERD’s reservoir levels and water releases can be remotely tracked with high accuracy. This introduces verifiable transparency into basin coordination.

 Moreover, Ethiopia can not indefinitely withhold Nile flows without compromising GERD’s reservoir safety and electricity generation, structural and operational realities impose natural limits. This reduces the plausibility of total flow obstruction scenario.

Ethiopia’s greatest leverage lies in data transparency. The existential threat narrative can be countered through verifiable operational evidence rather than rhetorical contestant.  

By emphasizing Burden-Sharing diplomatic strategy where the GERD provides the energy necessary to stabilize the Horn of Africa without U.S. aid, Ethiopia can align with the mandate of the current administration; America First pillars; where the current Trump administration values peace through strength and securing strategic corridors.

The traditional rights-based diplomacy that has characterized the Nile dispute for decades, often rooted in century-old colonial treaties is now strategically outdated. In analysts interpret the 2025, National Security Strategy (NSS), signaling a decisive turn toward Flexible Realism.’ This  moves toward transactional burden sharing.

For Ethiopia to secure a fair stage in this new era of U.S.-led mediation, it must move past the rhetoric of sovereign entitlement and re-frame the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a strategic regional stability. It requires shift from abstract legalism to transactional diplomacy. By positioning the GERD as the primary strategic tool as response to mitigate regional energy poverty and mass migration; two of the primary National Interest priorities for the current U.S. administration. Ethiopia can transform a perceived unilateral project into a base of the U.S. Investment and Growth Model for the Horn of Africa.

In January, 2026, President Trump stated that no state should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile. While this is challenge to Ethiopia, it also may creates a fair stage depending how Ethiopia present the GERD; as a regional partnership cause.

Energy for Security Trade-off ?

Ethiopia’s goal of becoming a regional energy foretaste by exporting surplus power, Ethiopia not giving away water or monopolizing; it monetizes the river’s flow. This transforms the GERD into a tool for regional integration economically, a deal where downstream receives energy security and Ethiopia receives the foreign currency and regional influence it needs. As the GERD was specifically designed to double Ethiopia’s energy output and facilitate cross-border exports other states.

Functional Deals vs. Binding Constraints for Ethiopia ?

The primary barrier in previous negotiations has been Ethiopia’s refusal to sign a legally binding treaty that might limit its future development rights. By emphasizing on data-driven coordination and drought safeguards rather than rigid legal quotas. For Ethiopia, a Technical Coordination Mechanism is far more advantageous than a binding treaty. It allows for the sharing of operational data (guaranteeing water flow during droughts) without signing away the Right to Equitable Utilization.

This satisfies United States inclination to get agreement through monitoring and coordination while protecting Ethiopia’s Strategic Autonomy. In this framework, the U.S. acts not as a legal judge, but as a deal monitor, ensuring that technical targets are met without infringing on national sovereignty. While Egypt has historically welcomed U.S. mediation as a way to formalize its historical rights. The 2026, Trump administration geopolitical might hands Ethiopia a unique strategic advantage. The mediator not a legal referee looking at old treaties, but a deal-maker looking at current power realities moves away from enforcing international legal norms and toward transaction stability.

Technical Coordination Mechanism :

Because the GERD is already complete and operational, Ethiopia is negotiating from a position of facts on the ground. Trump’s 2026 mediation framework focuses on predictable water releases rather than water ownership.

The GERD  was financed domestically after international funding was constrained by geopolitical pressures. 91% through the commercial bank of Ethiopia and the remaining from public contribution, including bond sales, salary contributions, donation after international funding was constrained. As a nationally financed project, the GERD is a sovereign development asset. It remains a sovereign development asset.

Ethiopia’s preference for trade model is both practical and strategic: commercial energy trade creates durable independence.

Geopolitical Implication :

While Egypt maintains downstream leverage and diplomatic reach, Ethiopia control critical upstream infrastructure. In parallel, Ethiopia remains a central security actor in the Horn of Africa, with significant experience in counter-terroism and regional peace operations.

Energy interconnect lines with Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya alongside emerging maritime economic partnerships, provide a stabilizing economic integration corridor positions Ethiopia as a stabilization asset.

As Ethiopia’s geographic position and energy infrastructure provides potential leverage for regional stability in the Horn of Africa and along the Red Sea which could support maritime security and trade risk reduction.

Ethiopia ought to proposes a structured technical coordination mechanism that prioritizes predictable drought responsive release, utilizes satellite verified operational transparency and ensuring operational monitoring without infringing on Ethiopia’s  national sovereignty.

By Rodani Getachew and Selamawit Getachew, Researchers, Horn Review