Somalia’s foreign policy shifts with alarming speed, leaving its regional partners in a constant state of uncertainty. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration frequently discards alliances before they bear fruit, aligning itself with new partners based on immediate convenience rather than long-term strategy. Ali Nur, a Somali analyst from Kismayo and Jubaland, describes this pattern as a hallmark of Mogadishu’s leadership. He argues that Somalia’s brief alignment with Eritrea and Egypt, which lasted only four months, is a prime example of its opportunistic approach. Nur warns Ethiopia against relying on Mogadishu’s unpredictable leadership, calling the current administration weak, shortsighted, and deeply corrupt. He predicts further policy reversals driven by financial incentives, a concern echoed by analysts across the Horn of Africa who urge Ethiopia to reconsider its faith in Somalia’s federal government.

Somalia’s pivot away from Egypt and Eritrea to re-engage with Ethiopia further damages its credibility. Ethiopian officials now face the reality of dealing with a government prone to sudden and destabilizing policy shifts. The absence of long-term strategic planning in Mogadishu, coupled with its preference for short-term financial rewards, adds volatility to regional politics. Political observers argue that Ethiopia should prioritize more reliable partners within Somalia, particularly Puntland and Jubaland. These regional administrations offer stability and strategic advantages that the federal government in Mogadishu cannot. Ethiopian diplomats have already deepened bilateral relations with these regions to counterbalance Mogadishu’s fluctuating alliances. Regional security experts emphasize that Ethiopia’s future engagement with Somalia must account for the unpredictability of its federal leadership. The Ethiopian government appears to be moving towards partnerships that provide reliability and continuity, bypassing the central government in favor of direct relations with federal member states.

The recent visit of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Mogadishu has further complicated the regional landscape. Their discreet diplomatic maneuvers aimed to challenge the growing partnership between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Mohamud. However, Ethiopia has countered by reinforcing its ties with Puntland and Jubaland, ensuring that its influence in Somalia remains intact despite shifting alliances at the federal level. Scholars of regional security see Ethiopia’s approach as a necessary recalibration, designed to neutralize the risks posed by Somalia’s erratic diplomacy.

Eritrea and Egypt are also adapting their strategies in response to Somalia’s unpredictability. Eritrea, wary of Somalia’s instability, has refrained from signing lucrative agreements with Egypt, while Egyptian policymakers have expressed frustration over Somalia’s abrupt policy reversal. Cairo had viewed its alliance with Mogadishu as a means to strengthen regional security, but Somalia’s sudden pivot has forced Egyptian strategists to reassess their long-term approach in the Horn of Africa. Analysts argue that Somalia’s diplomatic flip-flopping undermines the potential for a stable regional alliance, weakening efforts to cultivate lasting cooperation between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Eritrea.

Political experts describe Somalia’s foreign policy as a combination of “geopolitical maneuvering” and “strategic realignment.” They argue that President Mohamud’s administration prioritizes immediate gains over regional stability, engaging in a calculated game of shifting allegiances that serve domestic political concerns rather than fostering long-term cooperation. Somalia’s willingness to change course without warning erodes trust and weakens its diplomatic leverage. Its approach contrasts sharply with the more deliberate policies of its neighbors, who value predictability and sustained partnerships.

Ethiopia remains at the center of this contest for influence. Ethiopian policymakers view Somalia’s shifting alliances through a lens of measured pragmatism, scrutinizing every diplomatic overture from Mogadishu against Somalia’s domestic political patterns. Analysts warn that Ethiopia’s reliance on Somalia’s federal government carries inherent risks, as Mogadishu has demonstrated a preference for short-term financial benefits over sustained policy commitments. In response, Ethiopia has strengthened its ties with Puntland and Jubaland, regions that offer consistency in governance and security. Political strategists advise that safeguarding Ethiopia’s national interests requires deeper engagement with these regional administrations rather than continued dependence on the unreliable federal government.

Egypt’s strategic calculations have also been disrupted by Somalia’s unpredictable behavior. Egyptian officials, frustrated by Somalia’s sudden reversal, see it as a betrayal of an alliance that once promised economic and security cooperation. Analysts argue that Somalia’s volatility forces Egypt to reconsider its regional partnerships, seeking more dependable allies to protect its interests in the Horn of Africa. Cairo is now engaged in a delicate balancing act, attempting to maintain influence while adjusting to Somalia’s erratic policies.

The long-term implications of Somalia’s diplomatic inconsistency remain uncertain. Regional experts suggest that Mogadishu’s credibility will only be restored if it adopts policies that reflect greater stability and predictability. Until then, Ethiopia is likely to continue shifting its focus towards Puntland and Jubaland, where it sees greater potential for reliable partnerships. Somalia’s erratic diplomacy not only undermines regional security but also complicates the efforts of its neighbors to build lasting economic and political ties.

Mogadishu’s latest political U-turn raises deeper questions about the direction of trust and regional alignment. Each sudden shift in Somalia’s foreign policy sends ripples through Horn politics, forcing Ethiopia and other regional players to constantly adapt. As Ethiopia refines its diplomatic strategy, its engagement with Somalia’s federal member states will be crucial in maintaining stability in the region. Whether Somalia’s leadership can establish a more consistent and trustworthy foreign policy remains an open question—one that will continue to shape the future of the Horn of Africa.