Imagine three heavyweight nations Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt waking up one morning and deciding the map isn’t big enough. That’s the vibe from their joint moves in early February 2026. Turkey’s President Erdoğan visits Riyadh, meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and they roll out a declaration that’s pure power talk. It defends Somalia’s unity, slams any split of Yemen, calls Sudan’s RSF government bogus, and tells Israel to pack up from Syria. Egypt cheers from the sidelines, fully on board. This isn’t just talk. It’s the birth of a massive axis, a tight group building an empire that stretches from Yemen’s rugged mountains, across the Red Sea’s choppy waters, to Somalia’s long coastline. Saudi Arabia eyes total control of the Red Sea trade lanes. Turkey treats Somalia like its new colony, setting up shop with factories and bases. Egypt dreams of an Arab-only sea, free from outsiders. They’re not sleeping. This trio pushes hard, sidelining Israel, the UAE, and anyone not in the club. Differences? Sure. But they back each other until a real power fight brews. The result? A dynasty gobbling up regions far beyond the Middle East.

Let’s start with how this all clicked together. Saudi Arabia and Turkey used to butt heads everywhere. Turkey helped Qatar dodge a Saudi-led boycott. Libyan battlefields saw Turkish drones wipe out UAE-backed groups. Syria was a nonstop clash of their worldviews. Egypt watched warily, often siding with Saudi cash against Turkish influence. But dangers piled up. Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Saudi ships, hitting their economy where it hurts. Turkey poured money into Somalia building drone plants, naval schools, ports making it a key outpost. Egypt saw its Suez Canal dreams threatened by Red Sea chaos. No one could handle it alone. Enter the Riyadh pact. They carved up roles. Saudi Arabia grabs Red Sea dominance with its jets and tankers. Turkey neo-colonizes Somalia, turning it into a forward base. Egypt locks in the Arab flavor, using its canal muscle. They share secrets, cash, and plans. Erdoğan praises Egypt and Saudi Arabia on Sudan but ghosts the UAE. Message sent: get left behind.

Yemen sits at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea obsession. This isn’t about peace, it’s about owning the sea. Saudi Arabia has bombed Yemen for years to stop Houthi attacks on their shipping. The declaration keeps Yemen whole to prop up Saudi-friendly leaders in the Presidential Leadership Council. Think of it: Saudi jets patrol Yemeni islands like Socotra, chasing rebels and rivals. Their big oil tankers need safe passage. The Red Sea carries trillions of trade ships from Asia to Europe squeezed through Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia wants that strait as its backyard. No UAE ports stealing business. No Israeli subs lurking. They team with Turkey for drone cover and Egypt for canal tie-ins. It’s smart. Chaos before showed solo plays fail. Now, Saudi Arabia dominates the waves, turning the sea into an Arab highway.

Somalia? That’s Turkey’s playground, a straight-up neo-colonization job. Turkey didn’t just send aid. They moved in. Coastal factories crank out drones sold worldwide, paid with local resources. Naval bases in Mogadishu train Somali fighters who sail Turkish warships. New airports, hospitals, and ports leave Somalia’s government hooked on Ankara’s money. It’s debt dressed as friendship. Saudi Arabia chips in trade deals and anti-piracy boats, but Turkey runs the show. They smash al-Shabaab threats to protect their spots. Money buys African Union votes, locking down the Horn. Somalia isn’t independent anymore. It’s Turkey’s launchpad pumping weapons, sailors, and loyalty into the Red Sea fight. The declaration’s “unity” line? Cover for “this is ours now.” Turkey pushes Israel out of any Horn dreams, using Somalia as muscle.

Egypt brings the Arab seal, hungry for a sea that’s theirs alone. Cairo’s no fool. The Suez Canal is their cash cow, but Red Sea trouble backs it up. Egypt wants calm waters patrolled by Arab ships, Saudi jets, Turkish drones, Egyptian talks. They hate UAE meddling in Sudan and Yemen. Erdoğan name-checks Egypt’s Sudan role, building trust. Egypt overlooks Turkish preaching for shared wins. No room for Israeli influence or UAE bases. Egypt envisions Bab al-Mandeb as the Arab world’s gate trade flowing free under their watch. With Saudi money and Turkish tech, it’s real.

This axis isn’t stuck in the Middle East. It stretches wide. The Red Sea becomes their private pool. Summit whispers talk ship checks at the straight Turkish boats boarding, Saudi planes overhead. Yemen feeds Saudi control. Somalia fuels Turkish expansion. Sudan opens ports after RSF falls. Syria clears Israeli clutter for a clean backyard. They shove UAE aside its Sudan arms deals and island grabs look weak now. Israel? Pushed to the edges, no bases or trade paths. Differences simmer Saudi strictness, Turkish fire, Egyptian caution but they prop each other up. Arms flow quietly. Intel shares. Faith groups like the OIC amplify their voice. Local fighters do the dirty work. They wake up every day pushing the dynasty further.

Why does this work so well? Past empires grabbed too loud and fell. This group plays quiet. Somali “aid” hides takeover. Red Sea “security” means tolls. Yemen “unity” equals Saudi rule. They smell blood. UAE overbet on Sudan wars. Israel chased Horn edges. Egypt glues the Arab heart and commonly hates beat style clashes. Real talk: they support each other until top spots clash. That’s when fights brew. For now, wins pile up. No one matches their sea grip. Oil cash buys friends. Trade lanes bow.

Dig into the strategy. Saudi Arabia dominates Red Sea commerce, no pirate risks, no rival ports. Turkey’s Somalia colony exports power: drones to Africa, ships to the Indian Ocean. Egypt’s Arab sea vision locks the Suez-Red Sea as one loop. The Horn isn’t a side gig; it’s the front line. Somalia’s coast eyes Djibouti and Eritrea. Yemen’s islands block the UAE. Sudan ports split as prizes. Syria stabilizes the north. Beyond? Ocean islands and trade routes. They use every angle proxies, money, diplomacy. Not sleeping. Always moving.

Old beefs like Qatar spats or Libya drags could crack it. But big payoffs hold tight: safe seas no one rivals, endless funds. World shifts, but these waters rule trade.This axis builds something fierce. Saudi Arabia owns the Red Sea waves. Turkey colonizes Somalia deep. Egypt stamps it as Arab. Yemen binds it all. From the Middle East core to Horn edge, they take it. UAE, Israel gone. Others watch hungry. It’s a dynasty on the march. Eyes wide open. Power spreads like fire on dry grass.

By Rebecca Mulugeta, Researcher, Horn Review