Ethiopia, with its changing foreign policy and economic development, stands at a pivotal juncture, facing complex challenges while trying to maintain strategic autonomy amid escalating global geopolitical rivalries. Historically Ethiopia committed to non-alignment, with a sovereignty-driven approach it now faces pressure as emerging blocs like BRICS and Traditional Western allies, Particularly the US, compete for influence in the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s geostrategic location as a gateway to the vital trade routes on the Red Sea and its position as a regional leader in East Africa makes it an important focal point for external actors seeking geopolitical leverage. A balanced engagement with BRICS and the West, Specifically the US demands a nuanced approach that maximizes economic gain while safeguarding national interest and autonomy.

As global power dynamics shift, the idea of strategic autonomy has grown perilous. Although the U.S. remains a dominant superpower, BRICS nations are expanding their reach through various investments, trade, and Economic initiatives the Belt and Road Initiative by China. Ethiopia’s role as a security protector of the region further amplifies its geopolitical significance, granting leverage but also exposing it to competing interests.  Hydropower projects, agricultural potential, and wealth attract global suitors, yet they also risk the predicament of external rivalries.

Pre-2018, Ethiopia’s Foreign policy model was state-centric with an emphasis on internal security and limited liberalization with foreign partnerships focused on aid and narrow trade. However, reforms made under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed post-2018 marked a shift toward economic liberalization, political openness, and a proactive diplomatic approach.

Initiatives such as the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda signaled a market-driven approach, aligning with global trends, in which emerging economies seek diversified partnerships to counterbalance Western dominance. Ethiopia now engages more assertively with BRICS nations, Gulf States, and traditional allies, aiming to secure infrastructure funding, trade opportunities, and diplomatic support.

Ethiopia’s engagement with BRICS offers Ethiopia a setting for trade diversification, reduced dependency on Western markets, and access to alternative financing mechanisms like the New Development Bank. Development Initiatives like China’s BRI and India’s development fund have financed various critical infrastructures, from energy to railway projects, accelerating industrialization. However, like most partnerships in Africa, these carry significant risks of debt dependency, technological dependency, and pressure on political alignment which further undermine domestic capacity-building.

Meanwhile, relations with the U.S. and Western allies provide market access via programs like AGOA, security cooperation in counterterrorism, and institutional support from agencies like the World Bank. Nevertheless, Western aid often comes with conditionalities that are tied to governance and human rights which could potentially constrain Ethiopia’s policy flexibility. Geopolitical pressures by Western powers to align with their policy priorities also conflict with Ethiopia’s non-alignment stance that deepens ties with strategic rivals like China, Russia, and or BRICS.

Ethiopia’s landlocked status further complicates its strategic calculus, necessitating secure access to maritime trade routes. To maintain the supply chain Ethiopia must collaborate with regional actors like Djibouti and Eritrea through initiatives under IGAD. Moreover, security dynamics in the Red Sea directly impact Ethiopia’s economic and political stability, highlighting the need for a balanced diplomatic approach to ensure uninterrupted trade in the region.

To navigate these complexities, Ethiopia will need to embrace a longer-term planning perspective with a regional integration agenda that is sensitive to the complexities encapsulated above. Focusing on self-sustaining growth models, diversifying sources of foreign investment, and managing debt portfolios will reduce risks. Strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as well as deepening cooperation between IGAD and the African Union (AU) will reduce dependency on external powers while providing the stability of regional supply chains.

Diplomatically, Ethiopia should position itself as a bridge between BRICS, the West, and regional actors, leveraging goodwill without sacrificing policy independence.

Domestically, building local industrial capacity through education, technology transfer, and workforce development is essential to reduce long-term dependencies. Active participation in international forums like the UN and WTO will enable Ethiopia to advocate for equitable trade norms and address shared challenges such as climate change and security threats. Ethiopia’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in a fragmented global order requires careful balancing of competing interests.

BRICS offers infrastructure and diversified trade, while Western partnerships remain crucial for market access and security. By emphasizing multi-alignment, regional integration, and domestic resilience, Ethiopia can uphold its sovereignty, drive sustainable development, and emerge as a model for smaller states navigating great-power competition. The decisions made today will shape Ethiopia’s future as a regional leader and a resilient player in an evolving international landscape.

By Tsegaab Amare, Researcher, Horn Review