Eritrea’s Misinformation Campaign and Its Toll on Regional Stability

The Horn of Africa, a region perpetually poised on the precipice of conflict, finds itself once again grappling with the specter of instability, largely fueled by the actions of Eritrea under the leadership of President Isaias Afwerki. Despite vehement denials from Eritrea’s Minister of Information, the evidence paints a starkly different picture one of a nation consistently stoking regional discord for its own strategic gains.

The recent pronouncements from Asmara, dismissing accusations of Eritrean troop presence in Tigray and pledging commitment to the Pretoria Peace Agreement, ring hollow against a backdrop of documented actions and observed patterns. To claim that Eritrea’s forces are “fully deployed within its sovereign territories” while simultaneously supporting destabilizing elements within Ethiopia is a blatant attempt to obfuscate reality.

The core issue lies in Eritrea’s consistent pursuit of a regional order that serves its own narrow interests, often at the expense of its neighbors. This pursuit is characterized by a reliance on militarism, a disdain for international norms, and a willingness to exploit existing vulnerabilities. The assertion that Eritrea has “no interest whatsoever in scuttling the Pretoria Peace Agreement” is contradicted by its demonstrable support for factions actively working to undermine it.

The historical record provides ample evidence of Eritrea’s destabilizing role. The long and bitter conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the late 1990s, the subsequent support for various insurgent groups in the region, and the intervention in the recent Ethiopian civil war all point to a consistent pattern of behavior. The claim that Eritrea has “no interest to exacerbate internal schisms within the political factions of the TPLF” disregards the documented support provided to dissident elements, fueling further fragmentation and instability.  

The fundamental problem stems from the nature of the Eritrean regime itself. The absence of democratic institutions, the indefinite national service, and the concentration of power in the hands of a single individual create an environment where accountability is non existent and regional aggression is unchecked. The notion that “ethnic and religious polarization etc.” are the sole causes of regional conflict ignores the deliberate cultivation of such divisions by Eritrea for its own strategic purposes.

The issue of territorial irredentism, particularly regarding the Red Sea, is indeed a critical factor in regional instability. However, Eritrea’s role extends beyond merely reacting to such claims. It actively fosters conditions that exacerbate these tensions, creating a climate of mistrust and hostility. The denial of any involvement in escalating these tensions is a disingenuous attempt to deflect responsibility.

The international community cannot afford to accept these denials at face value. The consequences of inaction are too grave. A renewed conflict in Tigray, fueled by Eritrean interference, would have catastrophic repercussions for the entire region. The spillover effects would exacerbate existing crises in neighboring countries, creating a wider arc of instability stretching across the Horn of Africa.  

The assertion that “Eritrea’s unflinching commitment to peace on the basis of fundamental pillars of international law and the interests of regional stability” is a rhetorical flourish that bears no resemblance to reality. Eritrea’s actions consistently violate international norms and undermine regional stability. The support for proxy forces, the disregard for peace agreements, and the cultivation of internal divisions all contradict this claim.

The international community must adopt a more robust and proactive approach to addressing Eritrea’s destabilizing behavior. Diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and increased monitoring are essential tools in this effort. Furthermore, efforts to strengthen regional institutions and promote democratic governance are crucial for long-term stability.

The claim that Eritrea is being used as a “convenient political punch-bag” is a deflection tactic. The focus is not on unfairly targeting Eritrea, but on holding it accountable for its actions. The evidence is clear: Eritrea’s behavior is a primary driver of regional instability, and its denials are simply not credible.

The situation in the Horn of Africa demands urgent attention. The stakes are too high to allow Eritrea to continue its destabilizing activities unchecked. The international community must act decisively to prevent a further descent into chaos. The future of the region depends on it.

The assertion that the “various postulates and ‘scenario analyses’, as well as calls for ‘external intervention’, peddled by most of these Conflict Entrepreneurs lack depth as well as objectivity, and seem mired in unhealthy motives and underlying agendas” is a blanket dismissal of legitimate concerns. The analysis of Eritrea’s actions are based on observed facts and documented events. The motives behind those who raise concerns are rooted in a desire to prevent further conflict and suffering.

The statement by Eritrea’s Minister of Information, therefore, fails to address the substantive issues at hand. It relies on rhetoric and denial, rather than engaging with the documented evidence of Eritrea’s destabilizing role. The reality is that Eritrea’s actions speak louder than its words. The international community must remain vigilant and hold Eritrea accountable for its actions, lest the Horn of Africa descend further into the abyss of conflict.

By Samiya Mohammed, Researcher, Horn Review