The Horn of Africa stands on the precipice of another devastating conflict. Long-standing rivalries, deep-seated political animosities, and shifting alliances are pushing the region toward a dangerous escalation. At the center of these rising tensions, Eritrea’s actions are drawing increasing concern. As fractures emerge within Ethiopia’s political landscape, Eritrea appears poised to seize the moment, reigniting old hostilities and fueling instability in pursuit of its own strategic objectives.

For three decades, Eritrea has maintained a posture of isolation and defiance, governed by one of the most repressive regimes in the world. President Isaias Afwerki’s rule has been marked by a relentless grip on power, indefinite military conscription, and the suppression of political freedoms. Beyond its borders, the regime has frequently been accused of fueling conflicts across the Horn, leveraging instability to assert influence. While the Eritrean government presents itself as a neutral actor, its historical track record suggests a different reality, one where conflict is not merely a consequence but a calculated instrument of foreign policy.

Despite attempts to control its narrative, Eritrea’s long-standing involvement in regional conflicts is well-documented. From its alleged support for armed factions in Somalia to its past interference in Sudan and Yemen, Asmara has repeatedly positioned itself as a disruptor in the region’s fragile balance. The 2009 UN Security Council sanctions, imposed due to credible evidence of Eritrea’s support for insurgents, reinforced international concerns. Though these sanctions were lifted in 2018, Eritrea’s broader pattern of engagement remains a subject of intense scrutiny.

Now, the fault lines of a new conflict are emerging. Ethiopia, still reeling from the Tigray War, faces deepening internal fractures, particularly within the once-dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Isaias, a long-time adversary of the TPLF, sees an opportunity, not just to weaken his old rivals but to shape Ethiopia’s political future to his advantage. Eritrea’s military, battle-hardened and fiercely loyal to the regime, is watching closely, prepared to intervene should the situation escalate further.

The signs of impending conflict are becoming harder to ignore. Intelligence reports, expert analyses, and warnings from senior officials all point to the rising probability of military engagement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Yet, as tensions mount, the international community remains hesitant to act. Some dismiss these warnings as alarmist, others fear that intervention could backfire. But history has shown that ignoring the warning signs of war in the Horn of Africa often comes at a devastating cost.

By Mahder Nesibu,Researcher,Horn Review