The return and reintegration of Sudanese migrant nationals have recently been emphasized during a two-day panel discussion called the Khartoum Process Summit in Addis Ababa, which Ethiopia and Switzerland co-hosted. This forum engaged a broad range of stakeholders, including government, to discuss concrete modalities for safe and voluntary repatriation, providing the necessary groundwork for more holistic policies to follow.

Since the conflict broke out in April 2023, millions of Sudanese have been forced to flee their homes and, more than 14 million people are displaced, which is about 30 percent of Sudan’s population. This mass migration has resulted in a significant influx of refugees to neighboring countries, including Chad, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Sudan, where acute demographic changes are projected to put pressure on local resource availability and shifting ethnic and political balances. In the long run, these changes threaten to upend regional dynamics by exacerbating tensions relating to identity, resource sharing, and political representation. What will be the next step that is going to they decide besides their sustainable decision and make them feel like permanent allies in their home country? 

Early refugee return emerges as a critical strategic move, resolving urgent humanitarian and socio-economic considerations. They also have a strategic imperative to prevent the rise of irredentist claims that could destabilize the stability of Ethiopia and the broader region. Prolonged refugee presence in border areas, as seen in incidents like Sudan’s provocations toward Gondar and the Al Fashaga region, will only exacerbate demographic shifts that opportunists exploit to fuel their territorial expansionist ambitions. Facilitating swift reintegration will allow Ethiopia to return to the traditional balance of demographics along its borders and preempt revisionist narratives that manipulate population dynamics to justify territorial disputes, setting the groundwork for lasting regional peace and stability.

Decades of cross-border refugee flows from Sudan have upended the demographics on either side of the border, knitting together ethnic affiliations that complicate mistresses of modern states and animate regional politics. Such demographic changes create a fertile ground for irredentist claims, where historical presence and cultural continuity are often brought up to justify territorial goals.  In the Al-Fashaga case, for instance, Sudan capitalized on historical links to residents of the disputed Ethiopian border zone. Similarly, the decades-old Halayeb Triangle dispute between Sudan and Egypt illustrates how historical patterns of migration continue to give rise to modern border disputes. The complex interplay of migration and national identity points out the robust need for diplomatic mechanisms to address future conflicts and contain ethnonational and historical-oriented grievances. The claim in the Sudanese situation is more unrealistic and it affects the sovereignty of Ethiopia.

Ongoing refugee migration significantly transforms the ethnic and political composition of border areas. Displaced peoples settle in different parts that change local demographics and political power, thus changing political representation and resource allocation. These transformations may destabilize traditional balances, creating conditions for opportunistic actors who seek to capitalize on shifted demographic baselines for territorial claims. If refugee issues are not rapidly resolved, the changing demographics could be manipulated to legitimize irredentist aims. Such a risk is indeed, evidenced by cases like the Al-Fashaga incident near Gondar, where population shifts have been utilized as evidence to validate territorial claims.

Moreover, invoking historical presence, as seen in the Al-Fashuga, serves as a powerful tool to reinforce these narratives and show that contemporary patterns of migration can be traced back to strong cultural and historical narratives. This interplay between demographic change and historical justification highlights an imperative need for comprehensive policies suitable to manage refugee flows and maintain regional stability.

Early return is strategically significant because it stabilizes the demographic balance and strengthens national sovereignty. Avoiding any form of passive approach, demonstrates robust state control over its territory, countering external challenges and rejection of narratives that attack the state’s ability to counter such provocations as seen in the likes of Gondar and Al Fashaga. Moreover, frameworks that are backed by international partners like the EU and AU are also critical to ensuring safe, voluntary returns that protect territorial integrity and promote long-term regional stability.

Swift and effective return strategies strengthen internal unity by avoiding divisions and preventing the politicization of migration issues. By establishing comprehensive reintegration programs that focus not only on employment but also education and access to healthcare, alongside robust legal frameworks that ensure safe returns, states can deny opportunists the demographic leverage needed for irredentist claims. To validate these initiatives and support them, sustained cooperation with the international community is essential to ensure that return strategies foster not only domestic stability but also broader regional security. Accelerated return policies, while promising in stabilizing demographics, face critiques over potential integration hurdles and human rights concerns if implemented too hastily. Balancing these issues requires meeting humanitarian obligations while ensuring long-term political and territorial stability. To address these issues, Transparent monitoring, community engagement, and holistic reintegration programs which will be paramount to safeguarding returnees’ rights and ensuring a transparent and effective process; which can, in turn, neutralize provocations like those at the Ethiopian border are essential.

Repatriating refugees is both a humanitarian obligation and a strategic imperative for securing national territory against future irredentist claims. Such blatant provocations, as demonstrated by Sudan’s advance towards Gondar and Al-Fashaga’s border crossing, necessitate an immediate response to counter the intended demographic shifts for territory. Immediate concerns about the migration of refugees now can be addressed through robust, coordinated political and policy measures aimed at ensuring the return of displaced persons while ensuring long-term stable borders.

By Bethelhem Fikru , Tsega’ab Amare