The Golden Alliances

In the Horn of Africa, where state and geopolitical rivals often dominate, the unassuming capital of Somaliland, Hargeisa, President Abdirahman Irro’s recent hint that the leaders of Ethiopia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates may soon visit. This trifecta of engagements spanning Africa, the Middle East, and the West represents a convergence of strategic interests that could redefine stability in this region.  

Somaliland’s journey since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991 has been in resilience. Functioning as a de facto state with a constitutional democracy, its own currency, and security apparatus, it has a reputation as an oasis of stability against chaos. International recognition has remained elusive, constrained by the African Union’s adherence to colonial borders and fears of triggering secessionist movements elsewhere. The region’s historical grievances including the genocide under Siad Barre’s regime and its consistent democratic practices have a moral and legal case for sovereignty.

The United States, under a  second Trump administration, is re evaluating its approach to the Horn. Senator Ted Cruz’s advocacy for recognizing Somaliland voiced  in the Republic of Somaliland Independence Act reflects a growing bipartisan view that Hargeisa could be a strategic partner in counterterrorism and countering Chinese influence. Berbera’s port and airstrip offer alternatives to Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, enhancing U.S. power projection capabilities. A visit by the U.S. president would be a seismic endorsement, elevating Somaliland from a diplomatic anomaly to a recognized ally in a region plagued by al Shabaab and great power competition.  

The UAE’s interest in Somaliland is part of a broader strategy to secure trade routes and counter influence rivals like Turkey and Qatar in the Horn. Through DP World’s management of Berbera Port and investments in the Berbera Corridor, the UAE has transformed Somaliland into a logistical place rivaling Djibouti .

President Irro’s prioritization of UAE visits makes this symbiotic relationship Somaliland gains economic leverage, while Abu Dhabi secures a place in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a point critical to global shipping . A presidential visit would further integrate Somaliland into the UAE’s security and economic plan, potentially including military cooperation to combat Houthi threats in the Red Sea.  

Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access is an existential imperative. Having lost its coastline to Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia relies heavily on Djibouti’s ports, incurring annual fees of $1.8 billion and handling 95% of its trade through this conduit. The January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland granting Ethiopia naval and commercial access to Berbera Port in exchange for potential recognition was a bold move to diversify its trade routes. This deal is not economic but it is a  vision to restore Ethiopia’s regional hegemony and secure its natural boundary on the Red Sea . A visit to Hargeisa would solidify this partnership, Ethiopia’s willingness to defy Mogadishu and champion Somaliland’s legitimacy.  

The convergence of these powers in Hargeisa could catalyze a new stability paradigm. Ethio -Somaliland cooperation might ease economic problems, reduce dependency on Djibouti, and create a counterweight to Somalia’s instability. UAE-backed infrastructure projects could spur regional trade, while U.S. security assistance could bolster anti-piracy and counterterrorism efforts . however  risks abound.

President Irro’s government faces a delicate balancing act. It must leverage these high-profile visits to secure tangible gains recognition from Ethiopia, investment from the UAE, and security partnerships with the U.S., all while managing internal expectations and external pressures . The African Union’s stance remains a critical variable though its 2005 fact finding mission acknowledged Somaliland’s unique case, it has hesitated to challenge the sanctity of borders . However, if Ethiopia breaks the ice, others may follow a scenario that could force Mogadishu to negotiate rather than confront.  

The anticipated visits to Hargeisa are diplomatic gestures, they are a testament to Somaliland’s indefatigable state building project. For the Horn of Africa, this moment represents a choice between perpetuating a status quo and embracing a realignment that prioritizes stability over dogma. As global powers converge on this capital, the world may witness the birth of a new nation not through conflict, but through the irresistible force of strategic necessity. The symphony of Somaliland’s recognition remains unfinished, but the curtain is rising on its most decisive act.

By Samiya Mohammed, Researcher, Horn Review

REFERENCES

1.  Somaliland president returns home after productive UAE visit.  https://www.horndiplomat.com/2025/01/somaliland-president-returns-home-after-productive-uae-visit/  

2.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Republic of Somaliland. The president, H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro’s participation in the World Government Summit in Dubai. https://mfa.govsomaliland.org/article/president-abdirahman-mohamed-abdillahi-irros-participation-w  

3.  Somaliguardian.Somaliland president Irro meets UAE vice president https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somaliland-president-irro-meets-uae-vice-president/  

4.  President Abdirahman Irro at World Governments Summit 2025. https://somalilandstandard.com/president-abdirahman-irro-at-world-governments-summit-2025/  

5.  Somaliland president visits Berbera, highlights electricity reforms ahead of U.S. talks https://www.facebook.com/AddisstandardEng/posts/somaliland-president-visits-berbera-highlights-electricity-reforms-ahead-of-us-t/1181644810667420/  

6.  Addis Standard. Somaliland president eyes key trade agreement with Ethiopia, calls on US to recognize Somaliland https://www.facebook.com/AddisstandardEng/posts/somaliland-president-eyes-key-trade-agreement-with-ethiopia-calls-on-us-to-recog/1033902228775013/  

7.  President Abdirahman Irro affirms upholding peaceful stability and democratic principles as he meets regional EU special representative. https://horntribune.com/2025/07/05/president-abdirahman-irro-affirms-upholding-peaceful-stability-and-democratic-principles-as-he-meets-regional-eu-special-representative/ 

8.  Somaliland president ciiro first foreign trip will be to the UAE https://www.somaliaonline.com/community/topic/289474-somaliland-president-ciiro-first-foreign-trip-will-be-to-the-uae/