The Horn of Africa, a region already fraught with political tensions, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical rivalries, is now facing a fresh diplomatic storm. At the heart of this brewing conflict is Somaliland, a self-declared independent region that has long sought international recognition.

The recent high-profile visit of Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro to the World Governments Summit in Dubai has ignited a fierce response from Somalia, which views the move as a direct challenge to its sovereignty. With Somalia warning of potential action against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the situation threatens to escalate into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, further complicating the fragile political landscape of the Horn of Africa.

The controversy began earlier this month when Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro was invited to the World Governments Summit in Dubai, a prestigious global event attended by leaders and representatives from over 30 countries. Irro’s presence at the summit was not just symbolic; it was a calculated move to amplify Somaliland’s quest for international recognition. During his speech, Irro highlighted Somaliland’s strategic location, democratic governance, and economic potential as compelling reasons for the global community to acknowledge its sovereignty.

“We have strong relations with the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries. Given our democratic governance, we hope the international community will acknowledge Somaliland’s sovereignty,” Irro declared. He even hinted at the possibility of U.S. recognition, stating, “We hope that the United States may be the first country to recognize Somaliland.”

Irro’s state-level reception in the UAE, complete with high-profile engagements, sent a clear message: Somaliland is determined to break free from its political limbo and assert its place on the global stage. However, this bold move has not gone unnoticed or unchallenged by Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu.

Initially, Somalia downplayed Irro’s visit, likening it to trips made by leaders of its federal states. However, as the diplomatic implications became clearer, Mogadishu’s tone shifted dramatically. Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, issued a stern warning, reaffirming the government’s stance that Somaliland remains an integral part of Somalia.

“Somaliland is a region within Somalia with grievances we seek to resolve through dialogue,” Fiqi stated. He emphasized that Somalia would not tolerate any interference in its internal affairs, particularly actions that undermine its territorial integrity. While Fiqi did not specify the measures Mogadishu intends to take, his remarks signaled a hardening of Somalia’s position and a potential escalation in tensions with the UAE.

The UAE’s growing ties with Somaliland have long been a point of contention between Abu Dhabi and Mogadishu. The UAE’s investment in Somaliland’s Port of Berbera, through its logistics giant DP World, has already strained relations. DP World holds a 51% stake in the port, a key infrastructure project that strengthens UAE-Somaliland economic and strategic ties. For Somalia, this partnership is seen as a direct challenge to its authority and a tacit endorsement of Somaliland’s independence bid.

The UAE’s involvement in Somaliland is part of a broader geopolitical strategy in the Horn of Africa. The region, with its strategic location along vital shipping routes and its abundance of natural resources, has become a focal point for Gulf states seeking to expand their influence. The UAE, in particular, has been actively cultivating relationships with regional players, including Somaliland and Puntland, both of which have distanced themselves from Mogadishu’s central authority.

For the UAE, Somaliland represents a valuable partner in its efforts to secure access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Port of Berbera is a key asset in this strategy, offering a gateway to East African markets and a potential military foothold. However, this approach has come at the cost of deteriorating relations with Somalia’s federal government, which views Abu Dhabi’s actions as a violation of its sovereignty.

The diplomatic fallout over Somaliland’s international recognition bid is not just a bilateral issue between Somalia and the UAE it has broader implications for regional stability. The Horn of Africa is already grappling with multiple challenges, including terrorism, piracy, and internal conflicts. The growing  rift between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi risks exacerbating these issues, potentially drawing in other regional and global powers.

Somaliland’s push for independence is not new. The region declared independence from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the Siad Barre regime. Since then, it has functioned as a de facto state, with its own government, currency, and security forces. Despite its relative stability and democratic governance, Somaliland has struggled to gain international recognition, largely due to the complexities of African Union (AU) policies on territorial integrity and the fear of setting a precedent for other secessionist movements.

However, Somaliland’s leaders have not given up on their quest for recognition. They argue that their region’s unique history and achievements including peaceful transitions of power and a functioning democracy make it a deserving candidate for statehood. The recent high-profile visit to Dubai is part of a broader strategy to garner international support and elevate Somaliland’s profile on the global stage.

For Somalia, the stakes are high. Any move against the UAE could have significant economic and diplomatic repercussions, given Abu Dhabi’s influence in the region and beyond. At the same time, Mogadishu cannot afford to appear weak in the face of what it perceives as a direct challenge to its sovereignty.

For the UAE, the situation presents a delicate balancing act. While its partnership with Somaliland offers strategic advantages, it also risks alienating Somalia and complicating its broader regional ambitions. The UAE may need to reassess its approach and consider the long term implications of its actions.

The diplomatic standoff over Somaliland’s high profile visit to Dubai is more than just a bilateral dispute it is a microcosm of the complex and often contentious dynamics shaping the Horn of Africa. As regional and global powers jostle for influence, the people of Somaliland and Somalia are caught in the crossfire, their futures hanging in the balance.

The situation underscores the urgent need for dialogue and diplomacy to address the underlying grievances and prevent further escalation. It also highlights the broader challenges of navigating sovereignty, self-determination, and international recognition in a rapidly changing world.

As the Horn of Africa braces for the next chapter in this unfolding drama, one thing is clear: the stakes could not be higher. The choices made by Somalia, the UAE, and the international community in the coming weeks and months will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the region, but for the global order as a whole. The world is watching, and the clock is ticking.

by Samia Mohammed,Horn Review, Researcher