The recent unveiling of plans for a large-scale nuclear power programme at the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represents a decisive moment in Ethiopia’s energy and developmental trajectory. Far from an improvised announcement, this initiative builds on years of diplomatic engagement, technical studies, and capacity-building efforts, situating nuclear energy as both a domestic and regional strategy.

Ethiopia’s energy landscape has long been dominated by hydropower, a resource that, while substantial, exposes the nation to the vagaries of climate variability. Recognizing this vulnerability, the government’s nuclear plan seeks to stabilize electricity supply, power burgeoning industrial sectors, and strengthen regional energy influence. Reports indicate a target of two reactor units, each approximately 1,200 MW, projected to come online between 2032 and 2034. Whether these will be conventional large reactors or small modular reactors remains unconfirmed, with significant implications for capital requirements, project timelines, and grid integration.

The nuclear programme’s current momentum is the result of a decade-long trajectory of strategic engagements. Initial discussions with Russia in 2018 laid the groundwork for technical cooperation, culminating in a 2019 intergovernmental agreement establishing a legal framework for peaceful nuclear collaboration. MoUs signed in 2021 emphasized human capacity development and public engagement, underscoring Ethiopia’s focus on both technical preparedness and societal acceptance. By late 2024, a Rosatom contract formalized a feasibility study for a Nuclear Science & Technology Centre, encompassing site assessments, research reactors, and ancillary laboratories. Ethiopia has simultaneously engaged with the IAEA through its fifth Country Programme Framework (CPF) for 2024–2028, integrating energy, health, and agricultural priorities into the planning of its nuclear infrastructure.

Institutional readiness remains central to the project’s viability. Effective governance requires an independent regulatory authority, a trained workforce, and stringent adherence to international safeguards. While the IAEA framework provides guidance and capacity-building support, Ethiopia must develop domestic mechanisms to manage lifecycle risks – construction, operation, decommissioning, and radioactive waste management – without over-reliance on external actors.

The geopolitical dimension of Ethiopia’s nuclear ambitions is equally consequential. The GERD itself has already introduced tensions with Egypt and Sudan over Nile governance, and nuclear capability – even for peaceful purposes – will shift regional perceptions of technological and strategic capacity. Engagement with Russia offers technical expertise but also introduces dependencies that must be cautiously balanced through diversified partnerships.

From a policy perspective, Ethiopia’s commitment to non-proliferation and international safeguards anchors the programme within globally recognized norms. Implementing comprehensive safeguards agreements and maintaining transparency in construction, siting, and operational planning will be critical in demonstrating the project’s exclusively peaceful orientation.

Nuclear energy in Ethiopia is both a technical and political project. It promises high-skill employment, industrial growth, and long-term energy security, yet carries inherent fiscal, social, and environmental risks. Public legitimacy will depend on transparent engagement, robust safety protocols, and demonstrable benefits to electrification, particularly in rural and underserved communities.

For the pertinent Ethiopian institutions, the strategic role is clear: facilitate nuanced policy discourse, advocate for transparency and phased deployment, and support regional confidence-building measures. Public diplomacy, scholarship, and technical training should be prioritized alongside diplomatic engagement to ensure that Ethiopia’s nuclear path is understood as a deliberate, responsible, and sovereign pursuit.

Ethiopia’s nuclear announcement should thus be interpreted not as an isolated technological ambition but as a calculated, long-term investment in state capacity, energy sovereignty, and regional leadership. By embedding the programme in  inter-sectoral institutional efforts, international cooperation, and informed public discourse, the country can navigate the challenges and realize the transformative potential of nuclear energy.

By Blen Mamo, Executive Director, Horn Review