A Tinderbox of Geopolitical Rivalry    

The Horn of Africa, a region as enigmatic as it is volatile, stands at the crossroads of history, geography, and human ambition. Its story is one of resilience and ruin, of ancient civilizations and modern conflicts, of strategic waters and vast resources that have long made it a theatre of fierce geopolitical rivalry. Like the Middle East, with which it shares historical and contemporary ties, the Horn is a region where the ambitions of great powers and regional players collide, often with devastating consequences for its people.

At the heart of this turbulent landscape lies Eritrea, a nation whose trajectory under President Isaias Afwerki has been one of relentless militarism and destabilization. For nearly half a century, Eritrea has been a perennial actor in the region’s conflicts, its influence extending far beyond its borders. From Sudan and South Sudan to Somalia and Ethiopia, Eritrea’s machinations have left a trail of discord and destruction. Isaias Afwerki, the nation’s first and only president since its independence in 1993, has become synonymous with conflict, a leader who seems to thrive in chaos like a pyromaniac drawn to flames.                 

Eritrea’s story under Isaias is a cautionary tale of governance gone awry. Unlike most nations, Eritrea lacks the foundational institutions that underpin statehood. There is no constitution, no parliament, no independent judiciary. The country is a one-man show, with Isaias wielding absolute power as the sole executive, legislator, and legal authority. This concentration of power has turned Eritrea into a militarized state, where mandatory and indefinite military service is the norm. Young Eritreans, desperate to escape the dystopian realities of forced conscription, risk their lives to flee the country, making human exodus one of Eritrea’s most tragic exports.

Eritrean migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea in mass

But it is not just its own people who suffer. Eritrea’s foreign policy is predicated on conflict. The nation’s raison d’être seems to be the perpetuation of regional instability, whether by supporting rebel groups, insurgents, or governments embroiled in war. Isaias’s Eritrea is a state that thrives on division, its leader a master of exploiting fissures within neighbouring nations to further his own ambitions.

Today, Isaias’s sights are set on northern Ethiopia, where he is engaged in maneuvers as destructive as they are predictable. The Tigray region, which has endured years of conflict, is once again at risk of becoming a flashpoint.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the party that ruled the region for decades and waged war against Ethiopia’s federal government from 2020 to 2022, is now the target of Isaias’s machinations.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (L) with President Isayas Afeworki

The history between Eritrea and the TPLF is long and bitter. In the late 1990s, a falling-out between the two erupted into a bloody war that left tens of thousands dead. The 2018 peace agreement brokered by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, was a rare moment of hope. Yet, for Isaias, peace was never the goal. His indifference to economic cooperation and infrastructure development between Eritrea and Ethiopia revealed his true intentions: to keep the region unstable and maintain his grip on power.

When the TPLF launched its ill-fated bid to reclaim power in 2020, Isaias seized the opportunity. Eritrean forces surged into Tigray, leaving a trail of devastation in their wake. The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, was a diplomatic triumph for Ethiopia and the African Union. But for Isaias, it was a setback. Peace, after all, is anathema to a leader who thrives in chaos.

Isaias’s response to the Pretoria Agreement has been as cynical as it is dangerous. He has sought to undermine the peace deal by engineering a militia in Ethiopia’s Amhara state and aligning with disgruntled elements within the TPLF. These factions, emboldened by Isaias’s support, are now openly challenging the interim administration established under the agreement and threatening to tear up the peace deal altogether.

The implications of such a development would be catastrophic. The Horn region, already grappling with internal divisions and economic challenges, cannot afford another descent into conflict. To Ethiopia’s west, Sudan is engulfed in a brutal civil war. To the east, Somalia struggles to rebuild after decades of collapse.

Across the Sahel, extremist groups are gaining ground. A resurgence of conflict in Tigray would create a belt of chaos stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, emboldening groups like al-Shabab and ISIL (ISIS) and disrupting global trade through the Red Sea.

The stakes could not be higher. The Horn of Africa is not just an African problem; it is a global challenge. The region’s instability has far-reaching consequences, from waves of refugees straining fragile systems in Europe to the spread of extremist ideologies into the Middle East. Global powers, from Washington to Beijing to Brussels, have a vested interest in ensuring the Horn does not descend into chaos.

Diplomatic pressure must be exerted to deter those, like Isaias, who seek to undermine peace. The Pretoria Peace Agreement must be defended, and regional cooperation incentivized through investments in trade, infrastructure, and governance. The international community must recognize that the Horn’s stability is a shared interest, one that requires sustained engagement and support.

The Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether the region becomes a bridge of cooperation and prosperity or a cauldron of conflict and despair. The world cannot afford to stand idly by as Isaias Afwerki and others like him stoke the flames of discord. The time to act is now.

If the Horn descends into chaos, the ripple effects will be felt far beyond its borders. But if peace takes root, the region could become a beacon of hope, a testament to the power of diplomacy and cooperation. The Horn of Africa’s future is not just a regional concern; it is a global imperative. The world must rise to the challenge, for the sake of the Horn’s people and for the stability of our interconnected world.

By Samiya Mohammed, Researcher,Horn Review