Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Asmara, Eritrea, on October 9, 2024, for an official visit focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing critical regional issues. President Mohamud and his delegation, including Foreign Minister Ahmed Macalin Fiqi, were warmly welcomed by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and senior officials at Asmara International Airport. This came a week after the Ankara declaration signed between Ethiopia and Somalia, and few days after Somalia’s foreign ministers arrival to Addis Ababa for bilateral meetings with his Ethiopian counterpart.

President Mohamud’s arrival in Asmara builds on the October 2024 trilateral agreement between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which aims to enhance security cooperation and align their strategic objectives. A key outcome of this agreement is Egypt’s decision to deploy peacekeeping troops to Somalia. While the official narrative centers on bolstering Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab and fostering national stability, analysts view the deployment as a strategic measure aimed at counterbalancing Ethiopia. This complements Eritrea’s significant military assistance to Somalia, including the training of Somali soldiers who have played a key role in recent operations against Al-Shabaab. Together, Egypt and Eritrea’s efforts are aimed at reshaping the region’s power dynamics and strengthening Somalia’s position, further consolidating the emerging axis between themselves.

Despite Turkey’s efforts at mediation, the trilateral alliance between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt poses challenges and strategic risks for Ethiopia. Egypt’s involvement reflects its broader strategy to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions, particularly regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The alliance also aims to bolster Somalia’s sovereignty and military capabilities, enabling it to protect its land and maritime borders more effectively. Such focus on maritime security underscores the strategic importance of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, key global trade routes where Egypt and Eritrea are expanding their influence. And that is percieved as a direct challenge to Ethiopia’s aspirations for maritime access through Somaliland and its broader regional ambitions.

In addition, the presence of Egyptian troops in Somalia, combined with Eritrean military support, creates a sense of encirclement that complicates Ethiopia’s security posture. Furthermore, Somalia’s stance against Ethiopia’s recent Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, which Somalia sees as a violation of its sovereignty, adds to the tension. This emerging alliance, combined with Turkey’s ongoing mediation efforts, underscores a major geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa. While Turkey’s role may help temper some tensions,

Ethiopia still faces increasing efforts of isolation and a recalibrated regional power balance that threatens its national security and strategic goals. Navigating this new reality will require Ethiopia to carefully reassess its foreign and security policies to maintain its influence and safeguard its interests.