A Secret Plan to Fracture the Horn of Africa

Here in the Horn of Africa, one where knights wear military fatigues, bishops issue diplomatic threats, not on felt lined tables but along the dusty frontlines of Lasanod. Egypt, in alliance with Somalia’s  federal government, is moving to open a new front aimed at strangling Somaliland’s three decade quest for statehood. What one sees is a sophisticated proxy war where intelligence operations, military posturing, and diplomatic warfare converge in action that may redefine the making of power in the Horn of Africa.

At first glance, this appears as another chapter in Somalia’s endless internal strife. the reality is far morea multilayered confrontation where global powers and regional actors pursue competing interests through local proxies. Egypt’s involvement stems from a deeply Satiety and arrogance that recognizing Somaliland would  shift the regional balance of power, strengthening Ethiopia’s position and diminishing Cairo’s dominance over Nile waters and Red Sea dynamics . For Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu, the recognition of Somaliland represents an existential threat a precedent that could unleash further fragmentation in an already sensitive state.

Somaliland, however, stands as an anomaly in this region ,a self-governing democracy that has maintained relative stability and built functional institutions while Somalia descended into decades of chaos. Its security apparatus, though under resourced, has proven  effective at combating extremist groups like al-Shabaab through a virtuous circle of local governance and human intelligence gathering. This effectiveness stands in contrast to the Somali federal government’s struggles against insurgency, making Somaliland an increasingly attractive partner for Western nations seeking stability in the region .

According to intelligence reports, a high level Egyptian delegation led by Major General Islam Radwan arrived in Mogadishu under the official pretext of African Union peacekeeping operations. Their true mission, however, appears  strategic to redeploy Egyptian-trained units to Lasanod, establishing Mogadishu’s newly declared Northeastern administration inside Somaliland’s claimed territories . This move represents nothing less than a  provocation, an attempt to create a territorial dispute that would undermine arguments for Somaliland’s sovereignty and provide a pretext for military confrontation.

The operation continues Egypt’s longer pattern of covert engagement against Somaliland’s interests. In September 2024, an Egyptian library in Hargeisa positioned alarmingly close to Somaliland’s presidential compound was shuttered after being exposed as an intelligence front. Ethiopian intelligence confirmed the facility served as an operations hub for Cairo, raising troubling questions about how such a facility could be established in the heart of Somaliland’s capital without detection.

Facing this existential threat, Somaliland has not remained passive. Its special military units seasoned by years of combating al-Shabaab and maintaining internal security have been placed on high alert. These forces represent a rare advantage in an otherwise asymmetrical conflict while Somaliland lacks the external patronage enjoyed by Somalia, its security forces have developed sophisticated intelligence capabilities through years of necessity. Their approach emphasizes human intelligence gathered through community engagement and local trust a contrast to the foreign-backed military operations favored by Mogadishu .

This security capability has provided Somaliland with something perhaps more valuable than weapons governance legitimacy. While Somalia has struggled with corruption and inefficiency, Somaliland has built functioning institutions that deliver services and maintain order . This fundamental difference explains why al-Shabaab has failed to establish significant places in Somaliland despite its devastating effectiveness elsewhere in Somalia . The group thrives in governance vacuums, not in territories where institutions function with some degree of effectiveness and public consent.

Turkey has emerged as another key player, providing Somalia with military training and infrastructure projects that indirectly strengthen Mogadishu’s hand against Somaliland . Meanwhile, the United States finds itself torn between competing interests recognition of Somaliland would advance counterterrorism objectives and reward democratic governance, but risks destabilizing U.S. relations across the Arab world and with the African Union, which largely supports Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Behind these strategies lie human realities often forgotten in great power games. Somaliland’s population has built a functional society from the ashes of civil war through local reconciliation and hybrid governance that blends modern institutions with traditional clan structures. This social contract remains fragile threatened not only by external intervention but by internal challenges including youth unemployment, resource constraints, and the lingering trauma of past violence.

As Egyptian forces prepare to deploy to Lasanod under the name of peacekeeping, and Somaliland’s special units dig into defensive positions, the Horn of Africa stands at a precipice. The outcome will likely determine more than just Somaliland’s fate it will signal whether stability and democratic governance outweigh diplomatic inertia in determining statehood whether external intervention can effectively redraw internal boundaries and whether the Horn of Africa can escape its cycle of conflict toward a more stable future.

By Samiya Mohammed, Researcher, Horn Review

References

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