The era of modern war has been fundamentally transformed. Tactical victory is no longer measured in terms of mere quantity of force, but in terms of velocity, accuracy and strategic impact of an attack. Recent warfare, from the rapid air campaign against Iranian targets to the precision bombings of Houthi militants in Yemen, has given a powerful test case to a new doctrine: the decapitation strike. It is not a random act of aggression but a clinical application of power meant to disable key individuals or command hubs at blinding pace and with minimal collateral damage.

The confirmed assassination of Yemen’s Houthi Prime Minister following a quick Israeli campaign, and the disruption of Iran’s command-and-control networks, are both self-evident examples of this power of decision. These campaigns illustrate that security’s future is in the hands of those capable of operating with the power of decision and with complete operational unity.

Its success as a strategic premise hinges on one over-riding factor: intelligence superiority. The strike on a high-value target is the final piece in a complex, never ending process of intelligence gathering. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the intelligence organization Mossad are not two different organizations that operate in silos; they are one, unified machine.

Mossad’s sophisticated network allows it to refine raw data into actionable, real-time intelligence and provide the IDF with a dynamic, comprehensive operation situation picture.

Once the intelligence has been confirmed the attack itself is a display of raw and formidable power. The intention is to saturate and skip defenses in such a way that the intended target is not even allowed any time to do anything. A multi-platform concept is at play here. The attack will not be a solitary drone but an effort from multiple platforms utilizing various modern and long-range equipment.

The rapidity of the strike lends credence to a seamless relay of real-time data to the operating units, giving the target no time to escape and the opponent’s air defense no time to respond adequately. It is a clinical application of power that aims to eliminate a key node of leadership before a larger defensive stance can be established. This strategy completely alters the nature of asymmetric war. Historically, proxy forces have offered a degree of deniability and a low-cost means for state actors to exert influence without direct confrontation. However, the new doctrine of precision strikes challenges this model, exposing the inherent fragility of proxies in the face of a technologically and organizationally superior opponent.

For the Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) and the Ethiopian Defense Force (EDF), the strategic implications of these case studies are obvious and constructive. The secret to Mossad’s longevity is its role not only as a gatherer of data but as a forward-looking strategic weapon of the state. The security institutions of Ethiopia have a chance to take lessons from this model by creating a genuine, institutional synergy. The NISS needs to be facilitated to be the intelligence powerhouse of the EDF, moving away from a silo model of information sharing to one of deep integration.

This requires the placement of intelligence analysts in the military command and planning frameworks to provide real-time, actionable intelligence. The shared, secure operational platform is required in order to facilitate this kind of unfettered data exchange. Institutionalizing this collaborative platform will allow Ethiopia to move from a national security position of being reactive and defensive to that of being preemptive and responsive. This is the secret to achieving the kind of speed and surprise that has been so essential in recent wars, allowing the nation to be able to effectively deal with local complexities and security threats effectively.

The sweeping victory of these precision missions sets a strong precedent for regional wars and how great powers can deal with proxy forces.We can expect a continued shift away from traditional, large-scale ground conflicts towards more focused, high-impact campaigns. States will likely become more cautious about their reliance on proxies, recognizing their inherent vulnerability to a rapid, intelligence-led offensive. The era of low-cost, deniable aggression may be coming to an end. In turn, adversaries will prefer to focus their efforts on augmenting their counter-intelligence capabilities and securing their own command and control network, and the battlefield will become a game of cat and mouse intelligence and technological chess.

Ultimately, the fate of war will rest with the forces that are capable of succeeding in the merger of military operations and intelligence. It is not enough to possess advanced weaponry; it is the ability to use a highly developed intelligence network to create an overall picture of operations.

It is what allows a military to strike with the crushing surprise and scope necessary in order to achieve its goals before the enemy ever knows they are being attacked. This shift is a fundamental departure from traditional combat and is a new era of high-stakes, intelligence-driven conflict, in which the rhythm of intelligence dictates the rhythm of activity. For a nation to be truly secure in this new era, it must build a resilient security apparatus that is both agile and deeply integrated, mirroring the strategic principles that have proven to be the key to overwhelming success. For Ethiopia, a nation with a strong military and capable intelligence service operating in a volatile region, the primary takeaway is the need to institutionalize this synergy.

By formally integrating the NISS and EDF through shared platforms and a unified doctrine, Ethiopia can leverage its existing strengths to maintain its strategic advantage and ensure its security in an increasingly complex world.

By Bethelhem Fikru, Researcher, Horn Review

Reference

Bilal Y. Saab and Darren D. White. 2025. “Lessons Observed from the War Between Israel and Iran”. War on the Rocks, July 16, 2025.  https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/lessons-observed-from-the-war-between-israel-and-iran/