A Coup of Common Sense?

Mogadishu a city where politics, clan calculus, and chaos perform a never-ending tango is once again the stage for a high-stakes drama. This time, the spotlight falls on a secretive gathering of Hawiye elders, whispering urgently to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) in shadowy corners, trying to stitch together what remains of Somalia’s unraveling political fabric. Their mission? To “bring the ball back to the centre” a poetic, if not slightly delusional, metaphor for restoring balance in a country where the centre has long since collapsed into a black hole of competing interests.

And what timing! Just as Al-Shabaab tightens its noose around Mogadishu, launching audacious attacks in the Shabelle Valley like a villain in a poorly scripted action movie, Somalia’s political elites have decided finally that maybe, just maybe, they should stop bickering like children fighting over the last piece of halwa. Leading this noble or desperate? effort is none other than Imam Dahir Imam Omar Imam Mohamud, a name so grand it sounds like a royal decree in itself. As chairman of the Mudulood Clan Union (Isbahaysiga Beelweynta Beesha Mudulood), he has taken upon himself the Herculean task of herding Somalia’s political cats back into some semblance of order.

The Mudulood, that venerable constellation of Abgaal sub-clans Waleysle, Agoonyar, and Wa’budhan have decided that if the ship is sinking, they might as well try to plug the holes before everyone drowns. Their three point plan? Repair internal fractures, prevent an intra-Abgaal civil war because why settle for one conflict when you can have two?, and somehow convince HSM and his rivals to stop treating governance like a zero-sum game.

It’s a bold strategy. Some might say quixotic. Others might laugh into their shaah. But in the Horn of Africa, where logic goes to die and geopolitics is a contact sport, stranger things have happened.

Ah, Ethiopia. That ever present specter in Somali politics, watching from the sidelines like a chess master waiting for its opponent to blunder. While Mogadishu’s elites debate clan arithmetic and power sharing formulas, Addis Ababa is no doubt rubbing its hands together, calculating how best to exploit the chaos.

Will they play mediator? Opportunist? Or just sit back and enjoy the show while sipping on some freshly brewed Ethiopian coffee?

Let’s be real ,Ethiopia doesn’t need an invitation to involve itself in Somali affairs. It has troops in the country, interests in the ports, and a long history of treating Somalia like its unruly little brother. If the Mudulood initiative fails and let’s face it, the odds aren’t great Ethiopia will be more than happy to step in, offering its own brand of “stability” After all, nothing unites Somalis faster than the sight of Ethiopian boots on their soil.

Just to make things extra spicy, Al-Shabaab has chosen this exact moment to ramp up its offensive, like a villain who knows the heroes are too busy arguing to mount a proper defense. The group’s advances in the Shabelle Valley and its attempts to encircle Mogadishu are a not so subtle reminder that while politicians bicker, militants plot. It’s almost poetic. As the Mudulood chiefs urge reconciliation, Al-Shabaab is out there proving that Somalia’s real existential threat isn’t clan divisions it’s the guys with the guns who don’t care about clan politics at all.

The broader Horn of Africa, that dysfunctional family of nations, is watching Somalia’s latest meltdown with a mix of concern and schadenfreude. Djibouti is pretending to be neutral while quietly hosting military bases for half the world. Kenya is nervously eyeing its border, wondering if another refugee wave is coming. Eritrea is… well, who knows what Eritrea is doing, but it’s definitely judging everyone.

And then there’s the African Union, that well-meaning but perpetually overwhelmed organization, sending troops and issuing statements that nobody reads. Their mission in Somalia AMISOM, now ATMIS has been going on for so long that it’s starting to feel like a bad soap opera lots of drama, no resolution.

The million dollar question, Clan-led mediation isn’t new in Somalia it’s practically a national tradition. Sometimes it works. Often it doesn’t. But in a country where formal institutions are as sturdy as a sandcastle in a monsoon, elders and businessmen wielding influence might be the next best thing.

Still, optimism should be tempered with a heavy dose of realism. Somalia’s problems aren’t just political they’re structural, economic, and deeply entrenched. A few closed-door meetings won’t magically fix decades of dysfunction. But hey, if the Mudulood can at least get HSM and his rivals to stop sabotaging each other long enough to face Al-Shabaab, that’s something.

So here we are. Somalia, once again with clan elders playing peacemakers, militants advancing, and Ethiopia waiting in the wings. Will the Mudulood initiative succeed? Maybe. Will it fail spectacularly? Also maybe. But one thing’s for sure, in the Horn of Africa, the show never ends. And if all else fails, there’s always the classic Somali fallback , plan,blame Ethiopia, rally the clans, and prepare for the next round of chaos. Because in this corner of the world, stability is just the brief pause between disasters.

By samiya Mohammed,Researcher,Horn Review