According to Basel Al Sayed’s report on Watan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has facilitated an agreement in which the United States is set to officially recognize Somaliland as an independent state. This move is closely linked to the establishment of an Israeli military base in Somaliland, aimed at countering threats from the Houthi movement in Yemen.

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not yet received formal recognition from any country. Despite this, it has built a distinct political and economic identity, covering an area comparable to the U.S. state of Florida and housing about a third of Somalia’s population. Unlike its war-torn neighbor, Somaliland enjoys relative stability, despite ongoing armed clashes in its eastern regions since 2023.

Strategically located along the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland sits near key maritime routes leading to the Suez Canal. Given its proximity to Yemen, it has become a crucial point of interest in regional security, particularly for the UAE and Israel.

The UAE has long sought to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly to counter the Sanaa-based Yemeni government, which is aligned with Iran. In 2016, the UAE signed a $442 million deal to develop the port of Berbera in Somaliland. A year later, the port was expanded to include naval and air bases, which have been operational since 2018 for launching strikes inside Yemen. The UAE’s military expansion in the area continues, with new aircraft hangars under construction.

Israel has maintained unofficial ties with Somaliland since 2010. However, its interest in the region has grown significantly following increased Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked maritime routes. An Israeli military base in Somaliland would allow Tel Aviv to respond directly to Yemeni threats rather than relying on Western allies.

The UAE is currently brokering a deal between Israel and Somaliland that could pave the way for Israel’s official recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Such a move would not only strengthen Israeli strategic positioning but also deepen military and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the UAE.

The U.S. recognition of Somaliland fits into a broader strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa. Since 2017, China has operated its largest overseas military base in Djibouti, a neighboring country to Somaliland. Djibouti, once a Western stronghold, has increasingly aligned itself with Beijing, offering support on issues like Hong Kong and allowing Iranian ships access to its ports.

However, recognizing Somaliland could strain U.S. relations with key regional allies. Egypt, which has strong ties with Somalia due to its concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, has already responded negatively to Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland regarding Berbera port. Likewise, Turkey, a major NATO member, views Somalia as a critical partner. Between 2011 and 2022, Turkey invested over $1 billion in Somalia and established its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu. Ankara has also secured exclusive oil exploration rights in Somali waters, meaning Somaliland’s recognition could disrupt Turkish interests in the region.

While U.S. recognition of Somaliland and the establishment of an Israeli military base could enhance strategic operations against Houthi threats and serve broader geopolitical goals, they also carry significant risks. The move could alienate Egypt and Turkey—two key U.S. allies in the region—while altering the delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa.

Amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen, Somaliland has emerged as a new battleground for global powers. As the U.S., UAE, and Israel push forward with this recognition deal, the geopolitical landscape of East Africa and the Middle East stands on the brink of a major transformation.

References

Watan. “UAE Brokers U.S. Recognition of Somaliland for Israeli Military Base Against Houthi Threats.” March 20, 2025.