The crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has evolved from an internal power struggle into a regional flashpoint, with significant implications for the Pretoria Agreement, Ethiopia’s stability, and the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape. What began as a confrontation between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has now fractured into an internal struggle within Tigray itself, further complicated by Eritrea’s strategic maneuvers and Ethiopia’s broader regional ambitions.

The TPLF, once a unified political entity, is now deeply divided. In October 2024, a faction led by TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael attempted to remove Getachew Reda, head of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray (IRAT), accusing him of consolidating power and overstepping his mandate. Getachew’s administration denounced the move as a “public coup,” escalating political tensions in the region. By mid-March 2025, the situation worsened when Debretsion’s faction seized control of key towns, including Adigrat and Adi-Gudem, forcing the IRAT to urgently call for federal intervention. Fearing a full-scale civil war, the federal government found itself facing renewed instability in Tigray, with violent clashes leaving dozens injured and raising concerns that the conflict could spill beyond the region.

This internal division reflects deeper ideological rifts within the TPLF. Debretsion’s faction, wary of federal oversight, seeks greater autonomy for Tigray, while Getachew Reda’s administration, despite its TPLF roots, has been more open to reintegration within Ethiopia’s political framework. This fragmentation has created an opening for external actors, particularly Eritrea, to exploit Tigray’s instability for their own strategic interests.

Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict has been marked by shifting alliances and strategic calculations. While Eritrea initially supported Ethiopia’s military campaign against the TPLF in 2020, relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara soured after the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed in 2022. The Eritrean government, which had long sought to weaken the TPLF permanently, viewed the agreement as a betrayal, allowing the group to survive as a political force rather than eliminating it completely. Beyond its historical animosity toward the TPLF, Eritrea’s broader strategy has been to prevent a dominant and stable Ethiopia from reemerging as a geopolitically dominant force. A cohesive and stable Ethiopia, particularly one with direct access to the sea, could challenge Eritrea’s regional influence and economic leverage. This concern has fueled Eritrea’s alleged support for insurgent movements in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as Debretsion’s faction within Tigray, claims that Getachew Reda has publicly made.

Beyond internal instability, Ethiopia’s regional ambitions have further strained relations with neighboring states. The Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), signed in early 2024, granted Ethiopia potential access to a port in Somaliland, a move that Somalia strongly opposed as a violation of its sovereignty. Eritrea and Egypt have seized on this dispute, forming a strategic alliance with Somalia to counter Ethiopia’s regional aspirations. This emerging tripartite bloc sees Ethiopia’s growing influence as a threat, intensifying broader regional instability. Ethiopia’s challenge is now twofold: managing its internal political divisions while preventing external actors from undermining its long-term strategic goals.

The Path Forward: Diplomacy and Strategic Mediation

At this critical juncture, Ethiopia must carefully navigate both its internal fractures and external pressures. A direct military confrontation with Eritrea would be highly destabilizing, and Ethiopia should resist provocations that could escalate into a broader conflict. Instead, the federal government must focus on diplomatic engagement and strategic dialogue to manage tensions.

Internally, the Ethiopian government should position itself as a mediator rather than taking sides in the TPLF split. Ensuring that neither Debretsion’s faction nor Getachew Reda’s administration consolidates unchecked power will help prevent further fragmentation within Tigray and maintain federal leverage over the region. Regionally, Ethiopia must pursue diplomatic restraint while reinforcing border security. Engaging with regional and international actors to counter Eritrea’s destabilizing influence, without resorting to open conflict, will be key to maintaining long-term stability.

Ethiopia’s long-term stability hinges on its ability to balance internal and external challenges through diplomacy and strategic engagement. Successfully managing the crisis in Tigray and countering hostile regional alliances could solidify Ethiopia’s role as a dominant power in the Horn of Africa. However, failure to contain these tensions risks plunging the country, and the region, into prolonged instability. At a time when Ethiopia faces both internal fractures and external threats, its leadership must exercise careful foresight. By reinforcing peaceful resolution mechanisms and countering destabilizing influences through strategic diplomacy, Ethiopia can navigate this crisis and secure its sovereignty in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

By Blen Mamo, Executive Director, Horn Review