The historical ties between Egypt and Eritrea, grounded in mutual strategic interests, have long been a defining element of the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape. However, the recent intensification of their cooperation, particularly in military and intelligence-sharing matters, signals a shift with profound implications for regional stability. While these two nations have maintained a partnership since Eritrea’s independence, the growing formalization of their alliance poses significant challenges to the delicate balance of power in the region, particularly for Ethiopia, which is committed to safeguarding its sovereignty and regional aspirations.

Eritrea’s decision to deepen its military cooperation with Egypt, especially in securing the Red Sea and facilitating joint intelligence operations, solidifies Cairo’s influence in the region. The port of Assab, a historically significant location, could once again serve as a pivotal asset for Egypt’s strategic objectives, further exacerbating Ethiopia’s concerns regarding its limited access to the Red Sea. While Eritrea’s leasing of ports to foreign powers is not a novel development, the potential extension of such privileges to Egypt would create significant challenges for Ethiopia, which has long sought secure maritime trade routes for its economic growth.

Despite these growing challenges, Ethiopia is not without recourse. The country has a proven track record of strategic diplomacy, always prioritizing peaceful resolutions while steadfastly protecting its vital national interests. Ethiopia’s longstanding efforts to strengthen diplomatic ties with regional powers such as Djibouti, Sudan, and Kenya have positioned it to counterbalance the Egypt-Eritrea alignment and promote regional stability. Ethiopia’s recent success in resolving tensions with Somalia through Turkish mediation further demonstrates the country’s diplomatic agility in the face of regional adversity.

The growing Egypt-Eritrea partnership, particularly with the prospect of Egyptian military presence near Ethiopia’s northern border, represents a grave security threat to Ethiopia. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which holds significant economic and national importance, has been at the center of regional tensions. Should Egypt establish a more pronounced military presence in Eritrea, Ethiopia would face an unacceptable escalation of its security concerns. While Ethiopia remains committed to peaceful solutions for securing its maritime ambitions, the threat posed by a potentially encircling Egyptian military presence cannot be ignored.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia continues to pursue a peaceful, diplomatic path, underscoring the importance of stability, non-aggression, and mutual respect in the region. The country’s unwavering commitment to its sovereignty and security, combined with its proactive engagement with regional and international partners, positions Ethiopia to navigate these shifting dynamics with resilience and foresight. Ethiopia’s efforts to maintain balanced relationships with regional actors will ensure that it can safeguard its interests while promoting long-term stability in the Horn of Africa.

In conclusion, sustainable regional stability requires an approach that acknowledges Ethiopia’s need for secure and uninterrupted access to the Red Sea while addressing the legitimate concerns of its neighbors. As Ethiopia continues to emphasize diplomacy and remain vigilant in safeguarding its national security, it will play a central role in shaping the future of the Horn of Africa, one that strives for peace, mutual respect, and prosperity in a region marked by complex geopolitical dynamics.

By Yonas Yezezew , Researcher,Horn Review