The Horn of Africa, a region constantly entangled in geopolitical competition and power struggles demands a delicate balance of power and diplomacy. Ethiopia, historically regarded as a cornerstone of stability in this volatile region, finds itself at a critical juncture. As rivalries intensify and external pressures mount, Ethiopia must prioritize building its military strength, not as an act of aggression but as an essential tool to reclaim its status as a regional anchor and reinforce its diplomatic efforts. In the face of challenges ranging from maritime ambitions to territorial disputes with Eritrea and strategic competition with Egypt, Ethiopia’s ability to project power will define its future in the Horn.

The Nexus between Military Power and Diplomacy

In the realm of geopolitics, diplomacy is often only as effective as the hard power that underpins it. For Ethiopia, this truth resonates deeply. Despite its historical prominence in the region, rival nations like Eritrea are always ready to exploit any gap caused in the region. For instance, engaging in provocative actions such as territorial incursions during the Tigray War and aligning with Egypt to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). These developments stress the necessity for Ethiopia to bolster its military strength, not merely to deter aggression but to lend credibility to its diplomatic overtures.

The establishment of Ethiopia’s ammunition factory is emblematic of this shift toward self-reliance in defense. By reducing dependence on external suppliers, Ethiopia is laying the groundwork for strategic autonomy which is a critical step in ensuring that its military remains resilient in the face of evolving threats. This move signals not only a commitment to modernization but also an understanding that military strength is indispensable for achieving long-term geopolitical goals.

In addition, Ethiopia’s recent advancements in defense diplomacy underscore its commitment to strengthening regional leadership and enhancing diplomatic leverage. The inauguration of Sky Win Aeronautics Industries marks a significant milestone in Ethiopia’s defense sector, enabling domestic production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for both military and civilian applications. This development not only reduces reliance on foreign military technology but also positions Ethiopia as a potential exporter of defense equipment, thereby boosting its strategic autonomy.

Maritime Ambitions and Strategic Autonomy

Ethiopia’s aspirations for maritime access are central to its broader vision of economic growth and regional influence. The loss of access to ports like Assab following Eritrea’s independence has left Ethiopia landlocked, reliant on Djibouti for trade routes causing a dependency that limits its strategic flexibility. Efforts to regain maritime access have been met with resistance from Eritrea, whose leadership under Isaias Afwerki has consistently sought to undermine Ethiopian initiatives.

A strong military presence would bolster Ethiopia’s position in negotiations surrounding maritime access, ensuring that its interests are protected against hostile actors. Furthermore, strategic autonomy achieved through investments in indigenous defense capabilities would allow Ethiopia to pursue these ambitions without fear of external interference. The drone manufacturing factory represents a significant step in this direction, enabling Ethiopia to produce critical supplies domestically while signaling its intent to assert control over its destiny.

Navigating Regional Rivalries

The dynamics between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain fraught with tension. Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray War exposed deep-seated animosities, with Eritrean forces occupying Ethiopian territories and exacerbating humanitarian crises. Isaias Afwerki’s regime has consistently pursued policies aimed at destabilizing Ethiopia, from supporting insurgent groups to aligning with Egypt, a nation whose opposition to GERD has placed it squarely at odds with Ethiopian interests.

Egypt’s rivalry with Ethiopia over Nile River resources further underscores the need for a robust Ethiopian military. Cairo’s attempts to internationalize the GERD dispute and forge alliances with upstream nations highlight its determination to curtail Ethiopia’s influence in the region. A strong Ethiopian military would serve as a deterrent against potential escalations while reinforcing Addis Ababa’s position in diplomatic negotiations.

These rivalries are not isolated incidents but interconnected challenges that demand a cohesive response. By investing in advanced technologies such as air defense systems and intelligence capabilities, Ethiopia can create a credible deterrent against both Eritrea’s provocations and Egypt’s strategic maneuvers.

Implications for Regional Stability

As extremist groups gain ground across the Sahel and Red Sea regions, the need for a stable anchor becomes increasingly urgent. Ethiopia has historically played this role, leveraging its diplomatic influence to mediate conflicts and promote cooperation. However, without a strong military foundation, Ethiopia risks losing this mantle to more assertive actors like Eritrea or external powers seeking to exploit regional vulnerabilities.

It is evident that the recently Ethiopia has been proactive in fostering regional stability through diplomatic engagements. The recent visit of Ethiopia’s prime minister to Somalia exemplifies efforts to mend strained relations and address contentious issues, such as maritime access and territorial disputes. This diplomatic initiative reflects Ethiopia’s recognition of the intricate link between military capability and effective diplomacy in the Horn of Africa.

In addition, Ethiopia’s involvement in regional security frameworks, including the African Union Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), highlights its role in collective security efforts. Overcoming previous diplomatic hurdles, Ethiopia’s participation in AUSSOM signifies its dedication to combating extremist threats and contributing to regional peacekeeping initiatives.

Moreover, a modernized Ethiopian military would not only enhance national security but also contribute to broader regional stability. By projecting strength, Ethiopia can deter aggression, foster economic integration, and support peace initiatives across the Horn. This requires not just investment in hardware but also training programs that prioritize professionalism and accountability within the armed forces. Collectively, these developments illustrate Ethiopia’s strategic use of defense diplomacy to bolster its regional influence, secure strategic interests, and enhance its diplomatic standing in the Horn of Africa.

By Yonas Yizezew, Researcher, Horn review