This New Year, 2025, has brought uncertainties and geopolitical challenges to Africa and its continental organization, the African Union (AU). At the global level, there is an increasing tide of shake in the mainstream political establishment in Europe. The rising of nationalist political parties and their clinging to the helm of power would inevitably shape the continent’s interactions with Europe, particularly in the areas of peace and security as well as climate financing. The power transition in America from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party under Trump has increasingly demonstrated the foreign policy trajectory of the new administration, and the consequences are increasingly felt in different corners of the continent.

Although there were promising trends witnessed in the continent last year, Africa has been shaken by worrying trends pertinent to uncertainties in the Sahel, diplomatic wrangling and looming danger of regional war in the Great Lakes Region, conflicts in the Horn, fragility of states, terrorism, financing peacekeeping, fragmentation of regional security arrangement and unconstitutional changes of government. The African Union Commission and Union member states are grappling with those challenges. Against this backdrop, the AU summit was held in Addis Ababa in February 2025. The 38th African Union Summit was held under the theme of “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent through Reparation.” The conversation on reparation had been on the agenda of the OAU. Ghana and civil society organizations have championed the issue to become the agenda of the AU. The theme was proposed during the 37th Ordinary Session of the AU. This designation demonstrated the AU’s aspiration to address the injustice of the trans-Atlantic slave trade and the legacy of colonialism, given the fact that Africa has still grappled with the dire consequences of the inhuman aspects of historical trajectory.

The AU summit elected the chairperson of the AU from Angola, H.E. Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco, President of the Republic of Angola. It also endorsed the election of four states for a three-year period of the Peace and Security Council: Ethiopia (East), Nigeria (West), Cameroun (Central), and Eswatini (South). As per the AU rules, lack of securing the required two-third majority votes by Algeria and Morocco compelled the election of North Africa to be cancelled. The Summit also elected the chairperson and deputy-chairperson of the AUC from Djibouti and Algeria, respectively. H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf was elected head of the AUC to replace the outgoing Moussa Faki, while H.E. Ambassador Selma Malika Haddadi was elected deputy chairperson. Mr. Moses Vilakati from Eswatini was elected to the Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE) Commission, H.E. Amb. Bankole Adeoye from Nigeria elected for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), H.E. Amb. Amma Twum Amoah from Ghana was elected for Health, Humanitarian, and Social Development (HHS), and H.E. Ms. Lerato Mataboge from South Africa has been elected for Infrastructure and Energy (IED).

The 38th Assembly of the AU also adopted strategies for clean and sustainable energy and transport pathways. The adopted strategies are: the Continental Strategy for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and Low Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF); the African Green Hydrogen Strategy; the African Energy Efficiency Strategy and Action Plan (AfEES);  the Continental Policy on Climate Resilient and Smart Infrastructure and the revised Abuja Safety Targets (ASTs). These strategies help facilitate Africa’s integration, economic transformation, and climate resilience. The Assembly was also dominated by the crises in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Multiplicity of initiatives has been taken in response to the escalation of the humanitarian crisis. For instance, since the eruption of the conflict in Sudan on 15 April 2023, the Quartet, the Quad and Troika (Norway, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United Kingdom and the United States) have been the mediation efforts to address the complexities of the conflict. Again, notwithstanding the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes, the unfolding conflict in the eastern part of the DRC has continued and exacerbated the fragility of the state and its institutions. The lack of coordination and complementarity in the peace processes and difficulties of matching words with action further contribute to prolonging the conflicts in those countries.

The multiplicity of the issues dominating the Assembly could be considered as one of the challenges to the AU to achieve the theme of this year that anchored on moral ground and historical precedents. Indeed, the AU will have a common position, assign a special envoy, and establish a Reparation Fund and institute a committee of experts. Although these institutional setups are necessary to address in part the historical injustices perpetrated against Africans and African descents, the clarification on the conceptualization of reparation and restitution as well as further dialogue and consultations are required. Furthermore, the issue of reparation is often raised while talking the trans-Atlantic slave trade. As a result, the issue would lack justice in so far as it fails to incorporate and acknowledge the role of the Arab nations during this humiliated historical juncture. Without doubt, the current global geopolitical uncertainties that eroded multilateralism and partnership would be less likely receptive to Africans demand for justice.

Although the adoption of policy positions and strategies are essential to chart the AU’s course, the current internal and external conditions of the continent have attested that member states need to revisit their hitherto orthodox approaches to financing, diplomacy, and dealing with internal complexity. Cognizant of the unprecedented geopolitical changes that have brought both opportunities and challenges to the continent and the AU, the new leadership of the Commission, the African Union Organs and institutions, and regional economic communities and Regional Mechanisms must redouble their efforts through reforming the institution, resolving internal disputes, democratizing the states and cultivating amicable relations to realize the aspirations of Agenda 2063. Indeed, civil society organizations and think tanks should also seize the moment to support the AU to galvanize its efforts to attain the strategic vision. Otherwise, the further marginalization of the continent amidst the weakening of global governance and economic and political uncertainty is imminent.

By Henok Getachew (PhD), Senior Researcher, Institute of Foreign Affairs