Horn Review Tesfaye sat down with H.E. Abdi Zenebe (PHD), Deputy Director, Institute of Foreign Affairs to discuss Ethiopia’s pursuit for Strategic Autonomy

Horn Review: Thank you for being here, Dr. Abdi. Could you please reflect on Ethiopia’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, the balance between foreign aid and self-sufficiency, the impact of homegrown economic reforms, and how these evolving policies might influence Ethiopia’s diplomatic and geopolitical future?

Dr. Abdi: It’s a pleasure to be here. Strategic autonomy refers to a state’s ability to make independent decisions regarding its economic, political, and social development, free from undue external influence. As you correctly pointed out, I believe this is what we are striving for at both the national and global levels. At its core, strategic autonomy is essential for safeguarding a nation’s interests while also ensuring self-sufficiency and sovereignty.

Since 2018, with the launch of our reform process, Ethiopia has aggressively pursued strategic autonomy. This effort goes beyond just material aspects like economic matters; it encompasses a broader worldview, policy orientation, and philosophy. For instance, Ethiopia’s foundational philosophy since 2018 has been መደመር (Synergy), which has significantly influenced our policy direction across various sectors.

When you look at our policies in security, politics, and economics, you’ll find elements of this Synergy philosophy, which is rooted in our national reality. It is not only about economic growth but also about shaping our political and security landscape in a way that reflects our aspirations for independence and self-reliance.

For a country to realize full strategic autonomy, a paradigm shift is required, one that redefines the source of the thought process behind every action. This shift is critical in ensuring that we are not merely reacting to external pressures but are instead taking charge of our own destiny.

You can see this in Ethiopia’s efforts to enhance food and energy security, encourage domestic stability, and promote regional integration. All of these initiatives reflect Ethiopia’s desire to stand on its own feet, secure its sovereignty, and shape its future on its own terms. That, in essence, is what strategic autonomy means for us. It’s about acting according to our own will and capability, aligned with our national aspirations.

Horn Review: Great explanation, thank you. My second question is: Ethiopia has long relied on foreign aid, as we all know, for its development. How can the country balance the benefits of aid while maintaining true strategic autonomy, as you just explained? Additionally, what lessons can be drawn from other nations that have successfully transitioned away from aid dependency?

Dr. Abdi: It’s essential to approach this matter from the right perspective. One key angle through which we should understand Ethiopia’s political economy and international relations is transitology, the study of countries during periods of transition. This is crucial because, during a transition, a country reexamines its purpose, its challenges, and the way it plans to overcome long-standing issues. Ethiopia, with its complex history, is no exception.

The Ethiopian government views itself as having a responsibility to lead the country through this transition period towards a better democracy. This transition is about addressing the backlogs and challenges of the past, and one of the most significant issues we’ve faced is excessive dependency, particularly on foreign aid. To understand this dependency, we need to examine the policies that led to it.

For instance, Ethiopia has gone through transitions before—when the country moved from the monarchy to the Derg regime, and later from the Derg to the EPRDF. These transitions were revolutionary in nature and, in many ways, created more problems than they solved. However, we have learned valuable lessons from those experiences.

Today, we are in a transition, but this time it is being managed through reform. Our approach is guided by three key principles that stem from the መደመር (Synergy) philosophy. First, it must be people-centered. Rapid, unchecked change can lead to disaster, so we prioritize sustainable and inclusive progress. Secondly, we recognize that the means are just as important as the end. It’s not enough to focus on the outcomes; the processes and steps taken are equally crucial. Third, we are grounded in reason and local wisdom. For example, whereas previous ideologies like scientific socialism were foreign to our cultural and social fabric, today, Ethiopia draws on its own sagacity and values to solve problems. We understand that the social capital within our own culture is instrumental in overcoming challenges.

Ethiopia is part of the global community and we certainly learn from the experiences of other nations, but we also recognize the importance of looking inward. Synergy, working together, within our own society, with neighboring countries, and with global partners, is at the heart of our approach. This isn’t about partisanship; it’s about collaboration and shared goals.

Looking at other countries in transition, we can draw lessons from the experiences of nations throughout history. For instance, Western European countries’ transitions from monarchy to democracy in the 1820s, as well as the transformations seen during the Arab Spring, provide valuable insights. While every country’s journey is unique, common elements emerge: transitions are often difficult, but they are essential for progress.

For Ethiopia, this transition is a democratic one. It’s not about moving from one authoritarian regime to another, but about moving towards democracy through reform, not revolution. The goal is to achieve strategic autonomy from all angles, which is why projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are so crucial. This dam will ensure our energy security, a key component of our sovereignty. Additionally, securing an outlet for trade is vital for our prosperity. These interconnected elements are central to our vision for the future.

If I’ve understood your question correctly, this is how we see the balance between foreign aid and strategic autonomy. It’s not an easy path, but it’s one that aligns with our long-term vision of self-reliance and independence.

Horn Review: As we know, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has introduced a homegrown economic reform aimed at achieving sustainable growth. What are the key pillars of these reforms, and how have they influenced Ethiopia’s economic trajectory and its push for continued development?

Dr. Abdi: It’s important to recognize that Ethiopia is part of a growing trend among African nations adopting their own policy orientations and ideologies, tailored to their unique circumstances. This is significant because very few countries in the Global South are able to chart their own political and economic paths, based on their own ideas and aspirations. This speaks to Ethiopia’s growing degree of strategic autonomy.

The question, of course, is how we can enhance this autonomy. The homegrown economic reform package plays a key role in this. The reforms have two main components: addressing macroeconomic imbalances, which has been a critical first step, and addressing strategic backlogs, deep-rooted issues that need to be unraveled for the country to move forward. Another key goal is to ensure inclusivity and sustainability. The homegrown economic reform package focuses on these aspirations in a very structured way. It includes various elements such as fiscal policies, financial strategies, and addressing structural issues across multiple sectors, including agriculture, mining, manufacturing, tourism, and digitalization, all of which are crucial for Ethiopia’s long-term development.

But why is this important? How does it connect to Ethiopia’s push for strategic autonomy? The core motivation behind these reforms is to reduce dependency, especially dependency on foreign aid and foreign capital. This is a fundamental aspect of the government’s approach.

One of the key outcomes of this policy shift is that the government has significantly reduced its reliance on commercial loans. Instead, through initiatives aimed at boosting domestic productivity, Ethiopia is focusing on reducing food dependency from external sources and encouraging mechanized farming, which leverages the country’s vast potential. This shift is part of a broader strategy to move away from external aid.

Moreover, the reforms are promoting domestic manufacturing, encouraging local factories to produce more goods, and diversifying both export markets and the types of products being exported. This diversification is crucial because it allows Ethiopia to reduce its dependency on a single market, creating more opportunities for growth.

National security concerns are also tightly linked to infrastructure development. Completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, for example, is vital to ensuring the country’s energy security. Similarly, Ethiopia has made significant strides in expanding its telecommunication infrastructure, which has opened up new possibilities for connectivity and development, particularly in remote areas.

In terms of transportation, significant improvements are being made, which are essential for facilitating both domestic and international trade. Additionally, the reforms are fostering greater financial inclusion by providing more access to financial services, particularly through digital means.

Another important aspect of these reforms is Ethiopia’s shift in mindset regarding technology and skill development. Capacity building is a priority now, with dedicated ministries focused on encouraging startups and fostering entrepreneurship. All of these efforts are aimed at making Ethiopia more self-reliant and enhancing its sovereign status.

In essence, the homegrown economic reforms align with the broader goal of strategic autonomy, and they are paving the way for Ethiopia to stand on its own, with a more diversified, self-sustaining economy.

Horn Review: Great. Now, let’s shift our focus to the U.S. With the Trump administration freezing U.S. aid funding and discussions of possibly dismantling it, what immediate and long-term effects could this have on Ethiopia and other aid-dependent nations like ourselves?

Dr. Abdi: As someone who focuses on transitions, I think it’s important to be cautious when assessing the direction of any new administration. During a transition period, governments tend to use institutions to achieve their goals tactically, so it’s too soon to draw definitive conclusions. We’re observing the situation, but some of the changes seem quite abrupt. I want to express my heartfelt appreciation for the patience of the many Ethiopians working with USAID and USAID-related organizations. They will need to wait and see what the outcome is.

The relationship between the U.S. and Ethiopia is multifaceted. USAID is not the only point of connection; other institutions like the State Department and the Department of Defense (DOD) are also involved. USAID has had a presence in Ethiopia for decades, with a long history of partnership. Ethiopia has graduated in many areas over the years, but we still have challenges, particularly in sectors like healthcare, education, and water, where we remain dependent on U.S. support.

That said, there have been significant improvements. Ethiopia, for example, has enormous potential, particularly in agriculture. The country has an estimated land coverage ranging from 35 million to 50 million hectares. To address recovery and other needs, Ethiopia only requires a fraction of that—less than 300,000 hectares. This demonstrates the vast potential we have. With the new policies and ideas being implemented, Ethiopia is making rapid progress in reducing its dependency. We’re moving from producing one season’s worth of crops to multiple harvests through initiatives launched, particularly by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and other efforts that are helping Ethiopians become more self-sufficient.

This is a testament to Ethiopia’s potential. We’re seeing firsthand how quickly the country can reduce aid dependency. And I believe this can apply not just to Ethiopia but to other nations as well. In the Horn of Africa, for example, our fates are deeply intertwined. We share common challenges, and our ties, through language, culture, and blood—are strong. Through greater regional integration and interdependence, we can address these issues together. We can overcome dependency and enhance intra-Africa trade, promoting the exchange of goods and services. This is a crucial step toward self-reliance.

For me, this situation with USAID serves as a wake-up call, particularly for those of us who advocate for the importance of strategic autonomy. I believe this shift can happen quickly and effectively, and it can be a positive change for the region and for Ethiopia as a whole.

Horn Review: Great. To sustain its reforms and, as you mentioned, strategic autonomy, what policy adjustments are needed? Also, what role do the private sector, entrepreneurship, and foreign direct investment play in this transformation?

Dr. Abdi: I truly believe Ethiopia is already leading a transition, and the management of how we’re navigating this transition is aligned with our time. Transitions are always challenging. If we compare ourselves with neighboring countries on a similar political trajectory, Ethiopia is managing this transition well, despite the difficulties. This success is due to the policy orientation in place. I believe we are on the right path, but what’s needed now is a greater degree of societal mobilization. This is especially important because Ethiopia is a country with a large youth population, and the rise of startups and entrepreneurship is remarkable.

To mobilize and address political challenges, we need innovators to step into this space and help overcome governance issues. This is where political innovation becomes crucial. Political innovation is a concept where entrepreneurs with a passion for their country contribute to improving governance structures and tackling social problems. Entrepreneurs need to be comfortable in the political sphere, which will allow them to bring their solutions to the table.

The involvement of the private sector is equally critical. Ethiopia is transitioning from a command economy to a market-based economy, and engaging the private sector is essential. The private sector will help foster a competitive and productive economy, and we are eager to work with our neighbors to increase integration. I strongly believe that the correct policy orientation is in place, and societal mobilization will accelerate the process of enhancing Ethiopia’s strategic autonomy.

Horn Review: Great. As Ethiopia moves away from foreign aid, as you just mentioned, how do you see its economic and foreign policy evolving? And in relation to that, what impact will this have on our relationships with major powers and financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank?

Dr. Abdi: One of the key aspects of strategic autonomy is knowing what you’re aiming for and understanding your destination. This is what drives Ethiopia’s foreign policy. Today, Ethiopia has a dream, a dream of prosperity, comprehensive and lasting peace, and regional integration. We believe that our fate is deeply intertwined with our neighbors, and our priority is to work with actors who share this vision.

Ethiopia has a long history of engaging with various international actors. This tradition will continue, but as we pursue prosperity, we will work with others who can contribute to this goal. Ethiopia is no longer isolated. We are opening up. This new foreign policy orientation, which prioritizes the Horn of Africa first, is unique. The “Horn First” doctrine reflects our commitment to our neighbors and fosters a policy of give-and-take with countries across the region and beyond—whether in the Middle East, the West, or the East. Ethiopia is open to working with anyone who shares our aspirations.

What defines Ethiopia’s foreign policy today is its national interest. Unlike in the past, our foreign policy is no longer driven by ideological orientations or alignments with specific powers. We are focused on securing our national interests, which will drive our future engagements. A key part of that is overcoming dependency, a challenge that has been a collective issue for Ethiopia. This is not just a present challenge—it is a generational responsibility. To address it, Ethiopia will continue to work with a wide range of global partners.

Ethiopia has the experience, the infrastructure, and the leadership needed to manage diverse partnerships with nations around the world. The guiding principle for our foreign policy will be our national interests, and that is the most important element moving forward.

Horn Review: In relation to this, does this shift signal a more assertive diplomatic role for Ethiopia, both regionally and globally?

Dr. Abdi: That’s the most important thing, I think. When you have a dream, that’s a very critical element. When you have a purpose, it’s equally crucial. To achieve this dream and this goal, you have to take action. You have to engage and put in the effort. Ethiopia, as I’ve mentioned, has a vision, a dream, and an approach to achieving it. This approach is peaceful and built on interdependence through integration.

This vision gives Ethiopia’s diplomatic sector a huge responsibility. Ethiopia is willing to engage with all different actors because we want to realize several goals: to expand our market, attract foreign direct investment, receive support from various partners, and also contribute to others.

Ethiopia is set to become a more active player regionally. We recognize the burden of responsibility, but we also want to play a crucial role. The Horn of Africa is gaining more focus now because the global economic pivot is shifting towards Africa. This makes the Horn of Africa an important player. We cannot afford to ignore this; rather, we must seize this opportunity for the betterment of our people, Africa, and the subregion as a whole. Ethiopia has an agenda, and we know where we’re going. Our proactive diplomacy, driven by pragmatism and prioritizing our national interests, will guide us.

Horn Review: Great. My final question to you, Dr. Abdi, as the deputy director of a premier Ethiopian foreign policy think tank, IFA, what is your vision for the country’s diplomatic future? Also, in relation to that, what key milestones should the country aim for in reducing aid dependency and asserting greater economic independence and global standing?

Dr. Abdi: That’s a broad question, I must say. One of the most important elements in Ethiopia’s future is realizing that we are undergoing a comprehensive reform process. This transition, driven by reform, requires a nuanced understanding of how to restructure institutions and incorporate new ideals. We need to create a structure that accommodates these ideals while also fostering behavioral transformations to build a consolidated democracy. We must all undergo self-reflection and understand that our nation, our beloved country, is not just an external concept—it emanates from within our hearts.

To end the history of dependency and aid, Ethiopia is committed to achieving that transformation. I’m proud to say that, in a very short time, we will see Ethiopian aid going out to other countries. This is a significant step forward. We have the capacity and the drive to make this happen. Knowledge production will be crucial in this process. We must produce knowledge from diverse perspectives, especially because in the past, decision-making processes lacked the depth of knowledge required to address complex issues.

As the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), in collaboration with other esteemed institutions, our role is to provide fresh knowledge that supports decision-makers in crafting informed policies. Right now, there’s a gap between policy-making and knowledge production, and we must close that gap. By mobilizing the elite and refining our knowledge, Ethiopia can better understand its potential, capabilities, and maneuver within a complex global geopolitical landscape.

AI, energy security, and other technological advancements are also crucial to our future. I’m proud to say that the Prime Minister has established an infrastructure and institutions focused on these areas. The world is increasingly competing in these sectors, and Ethiopia is preparing itself for these challenges. This foresight shows that Ethiopia is on the right trajectory.

In terms of global geopolitical developments, these are matters that warrant further discussion. What we are witnessing now is very unique. I am studying these shifts through theories like power transition theory. We’re seeing the global order being challenged in various ways, and Ethiopia is in a position to benefit from this transition, though there are challenges. We must prepare our country to respond to these global changes while also contributing to humanity with new ideas.

At the Horn of Africa level, I believe Ethiopia’s enhanced strategic autonomy will positively affect the region’s stability and prosperity. Given the region’s importance in global trade and political-economic corridors, Ethiopia’s role will be crucial in shaping these developments.

Horn Review: Thank you. We’ve had an important discussion. 

Dr. Abdi: Thank you.