Yemen’s diplomatic relations with Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa have historically been significant. Yemen’s geopolitical position, in close proximity to the region, places it as an integral part of the Horn of Africa. Geographically, the Horn of Africa comprises Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. However, Yemen’s location near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, positions it as a key neighbor. This strait serves as a vital international trade route. Today, Yemen is grappling with deep divisions along ideological, tribal, and religious lines, while Ethiopia is navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. Therefore, there is a strong need to revitalize their strategic partnership.

Yemen’s civil war erupted in September 2014, with the internationally recognized government losing power to al-Houthi insurgents, backed by Iran. The conflict has attracted involvement from numerous regional and international actors, including Western powers, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Iran, and Russia. This external intervention has complicated the situation, as various actors deploy military support to advance competing interests.

The Saudi-led coalition, which had been battling the Houthis, recently agreed to a Chinese-mediated ceasefire deal, acknowledging that it could not militarily defeat the Iranian-backed movement. Although this deal resulted in a ceasefire, it did not address the root causes of Yemen’s internal divisions. Northern Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, is controlled by the Houthis, while the east and south are contested by multiple factions. Despite efforts from the United Nations, including the March 2023 release of 887 detainees, a credible peace process is still lacking, meaning the conflict could persist.

Yemen’s civil war has had far-reaching implications for the Horn of Africa. The conflict has disrupted shipping lanes, posing a threat to one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints. This disruption affects the economies of Horn of Africa countries, which rely on secure and stable maritime routes for importing goods and exporting resources.

Historical and Cultural Connections

The relationship between Ethiopia and Yemen is deeply rooted in historical and cultural ties. Today, thousands of Ethiopians live in Yemen, and many Yemenis reside in Ethiopia. The Yemeni Community School in Addis Ababa is a testament to these enduring connections. Yemenis remember Ethiopia’s role in providing sanctuary during the rule of the Imams after World War II, prior to the establishment of the Yemen Arab Republic in 1962. Similarly, Ethiopia is indebted to the Yemeni troops who fought alongside Ethiopia to stop the aggression of Siad Barre’s regime during the 1977-78 Ogaden War with Somalia. Formal diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Yemen began in 1935, and despite the division of Yemen into two states, these relations continued and were strengthened after Yemen’s reunification in 1990. Yemen has consistently supported Ethiopia’s diplomatic efforts, particularly during the Ethio-Eritrean War of 1998-2000, when Yemen supplied armaments and demonstrated its solidarity.

Today, Ethiopia and Yemen have strong bilateral relations based on shared history, kinship, and mutual interests in regional policies, economics, and trade. There have been several high-level visits between the two countries, and their relations flourished particularly after the fall of the Derg and the rise of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government. They now have a Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) to monitor the implementation of agreements across political, economic, and social sectors. The two countries also collaborate extensively on combating terrorism, human trafficking, and other illegal activities, and this cooperation is expected to continue and expand.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (L) & President Ali Abdullah Saleh, on the Conclusion of Zenawi’s Visit to Yemen, November 2008

Economic and Trade Relations, Multilateral Cooperation & Ethiopia’s role in Yemen Peacebuilding Efforts

Although the trade volume between Ethiopia and Yemen is relatively low, there is potential for growth. Ethiopia exports cattle, livestock, and agricultural products to Yemen, while importing various consumer goods, including chemicals. There is significant room for expanding trade, particularly through South-South Cooperation and comparative advantages. Recently, Yemeni investors have begun showing increased interest in Ethiopia, with several joint ventures already established and operational.

Beyond bilateral ties, Ethiopia and Yemen have worked together in multilateral forums, such as the Sana’a Forum for Cooperation, founded in 2002 with Sudan. This forum plays a key role in promoting cooperation in areas such as economics, trade, investment, tourism, and social development within the Horn of Africa. One of its key objectives is to address security concerns, including terrorism and piracy, which affect the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. While Ethiopia has no coastline, it is deeply vested in the security and stability of these maritime routes, which are crucial for its trade.

Ethiopia’s involvement in peacebuilding efforts in Yemen could prove essential. Given the intertwined security and economic fates of the Horn of Africa and Yemen, it is crucial for regional states to work together to restore peace and stability in Yemen. By doing so, the Horn of Africa can secure its trade routes, protect its economies, and promote regional stability.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (L) and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh walk and talk together at the presidential palace in Sanaa on November 27, 2008.

The Strategic Importance of Yemen for Ethiopia

If Ethiopia were to establish a naval base in Yemen, it would mark a significant shift in regional dynamics. This move could enhance Ethiopia’s strategic influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, providing it with a much-needed maritime outlet to strengthen its economic and security interests. However, such a decision could lead to tensions with neighboring countries and alter the balance of power in the region, depending on the reactions of other regional actors and the international community.

Ethiopia faces security threats from the militarization of its neighbors, particularly the presence of Gulf powers. There is a risk of exporting regional rivalries, such as the Iran-Saudi Arabia divide, to the Horn, as seen in Yemen. These tensions threaten Ethiopia’s foreign policy interests and its pursuit of stable, reliable maritime access. The expansion of foreign military bases in the region could also challenge Ethiopia’s regional influence, as its landlocked status and surrounding instability already constrain its geopolitical flexibility.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy meeting Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed, the Prime Minister of Yemen, on the sidelines of the 5th United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5) in Doha, Qatar. March, 2023

Expanding Cooperation

Ethiopia and Yemen share strong bilateral relations, founded on common interests in security, peace, and regional stability. Their cooperation on issues such as terrorism and the stability of the Horn of Africa remains vital. There is ample potential for the relationship to deepen, particularly in the fields of trade, investment, and regional cooperation. By recognizing Yemen’s central role in the Horn of Africa, regional actors can develop more effective strategies for conflict resolution, promoting peace, and fostering long-term stability. Strengthening Ethiopia-Yemen relations is not just beneficial for the two countries but for the entire Horn of Africa region, ensuring a more secure, prosperous future for all.

By Qale’ab T. Sigatu (PHD), Assistant Professor, FDRE Defense War College