Ambassador General Bacha Debele, Ethiopia’s  Ambassador to Kenya

X: @ButaDubi

The Horn of Africa region is marked by persistent conflicts, insecurity, and violent extremism. The region’s fragile governance structures, ongoing intra- and interstate conflicts, ethnic tensions, environmental challenges, and economic instability have led to widespread human insecurity, spilling across borders and impacting both regional and international peace. Amidst these challenges, Ethiopia, the largest country in the Horn, has played a critical role in addressing security issues, emerging as a key contributor to regional peacekeeping operations. The instability caused by violent internal conflicts within regional states has made security a paramount concern. The United Nations has launched fourteen peace support operations globally, seven of which are in Africa, with three specifically in the Horn of Africa. Similarly, the African Union has deployed six peace operations, with three focused on this region. Against this backdrop, ensuring security remains a key concern for the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s Peacekeeping History and Regional Influence

Ethiopia has historically taken a proactive approach to regional and international peacekeeping initiatives due to its central geographical position within the Horn of Africa. Surrounded by states that have experienced significant instability, Ethiopia’s strategic location has compelled it to engage actively in peacekeeping and stabilization efforts. Notably, in the 1950s, Ethiopia contributed troops to the Korean War as part of a UN peacekeeping mission, marking its early commitment to global peace efforts. Since then, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has made considerable contributions to conflict resolution and counterterrorism initiatives across Africa, particularly in Somalia.

Ethiopia’s commitment to peacekeeping efforts, both globally and regionally, has been driven by its desire to maintain stability within the Horn of Africa, curb the spread of terrorism, and contribute to peacebuilding initiatives. One of Ethiopia’s most significant peacekeeping roles has been its participation in Somalia, where it has taken part in various operations aimed at stabilizing the country and countering extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopia’s Role in Somalia: From Intervention to Peacekeeping

Ethiopia’s military involvement in Somalia can be traced back to the early 2000s when the country became concerned about the growing threat posed by Islamist groups. In 2006, Al-Shabaab, an extremist group with ties to al-Qaeda, emerged as a powerful force in Somalia. The political vacuum left by the fall of Siad Barre and the fracturing of the country into various factions made Somalia a prime target for the rise of militant groups. Al-Shabaab’s increasing influence near Ethiopia’s borders raised significant security concerns for Addis Ababa.

In response, Ethiopia, with the backing of the United States as part of the broader “war on terror,” deployed troops into Somalia to combat Al-Shabaab and prevent the consolidation of power by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). This intervention, led by Brig. Gen. Geberezgabier Alemseged, successfully dismantled the ICU by early 2007, showcasing Ethiopia’s military capabilities and its commitment to countering regional security threats.

In the years that followed, Ethiopia’s role evolved from direct military intervention to a more sustained peacekeeping and stabilization effort. Ethiopia became a key supporter of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG), recognizing that strengthening this internationally recognized government was crucial to stabilizing Somalia and countering extremist factions. Ethiopia’s support extended beyond military operations, involving diplomatic, humanitarian, and infrastructure reconstruction initiatives. Ethiopia actively participated in the African Union peacekeeping mission, AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia), and its successor, ATMIS (African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia), offering military, political, and economic assistance to Somalia’s recovery.

In 2014, Ethiopia formally joined AMISOM, contributing significantly to military operations aimed at securing government personnel and institutions, facilitating humanitarian access, and launching military operations against Al-Shabaab. In 2022, AMISOM transitioned to ATMIS, with 3,000 Ethiopian troops deployed under the new mandate to support state-building and political processes. However, despite these efforts, there has been a gap between the aspirations for peace and the realities on the ground, which led to the modification of the mission’s objectives.

The Future of Ethiopia’s Involvement in Somalia

As the mandate for ATMIS approaches its end in 2024, the Federal Government of Somalia has requested a new mission to replace it, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is set to begin in 2025. AUSSOM will focus on ongoing peace-building efforts, protecting Somali citizens, and combating Al-Shabaab. While Ethiopia’s role in Somalia has been essential in ensuring the country’s stability, recent developments have strained relations between Ethiopia and Somalia.

In particular, the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland in early 2024 has drawn the ire of Somalia, which views the agreement as a violation of its territorial integrity. Somalia has demanded Ethiopia withdraw from the agreement and has refused to allow Ethiopian troops to participate in the upcoming AUSSOM mission. This situation has opened the door for Egypt to increase its influence in the region, as it seeks to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing regional power.

Egypt’s Influence and Regional Tensions

Egypt’s involvement in the Horn of Africa is primarily motivated by its concerns over the Nile River, which flows through several Horn countries. Egypt relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply and has long viewed Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a potential threat to its share of the river’s waters. As a result, Egypt has engaged in efforts to undermine Ethiopia’s regional influence, using its diplomatic and military ties with Somalia to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing power.

Egypt’s alignment with Somalia in this context risks exacerbating tensions in the Horn of Africa. Egypt has provided military support and training to Somali security forces in an effort to bolster its position in the region. However, Egypt’s increased militarization and involvement in the Horn may lead to further escalation of conflicts, especially as Ethiopia seeks to secure its national interests in Somalia and the wider region. The situation is further complicated by the diplomatic efforts of Ethiopia and Somalia, with recent positive momentum seen in the Ankara Agreement, which promises to strengthen cooperation between the two countries.

Ethiopia’s Strategic Role in Regional Security

Ethiopia’s role in regional peacekeeping, particularly in Somalia, cannot be overstated. Its strategic location and military capabilities make it an indispensable player in the fight against terrorism and in maintaining stability within the Horn of Africa. Through its active participation in African Union peacekeeping missions, Ethiopia has contributed significantly to the stabilization of Somalia, including reducing Al-Shabaab’s territorial control and supporting political processes that aim to create a stable Somali government.

However, Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Somalia or any significant reduction in its peacekeeping presence would likely destabilize the region. Such a move would create a power vacuum, potentially leading to the resurgence of extremist organizations such as Al-Shabaab. This would be detrimental not only to Somalia but also to Ethiopia’s security, as Al-Shabaab poses a direct threat to both countries. Therefore, it is crucial that Ethiopia’s peacekeeping role in Somalia continues to be supported, and that any disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia be resolved through diplomatic means to avoid regional instability.

A Path Forward for Somalia

Looking ahead, Somalia’s future depends largely on its ability to balance national interests with regional security considerations. The expulsion of Ethiopian peacekeeping forces would likely destabilize Somalia and open the door for extremist factions to regain control of parts of the country. If the AUSSOM transition is not managed carefully, it could lead to further fragmentation of Somalia, giving Al-Shabaab the opportunity to seize power.

The most viable path forward is to foster cooperation between Somalia and its neighboring countries, including Ethiopia, and to engage in peaceful dialogue to address the underlying issues. This is especially crucial given the volatility of the Horn of Africa and the risk of further external interference. Somalia’s political leadership must prioritize stability, security, and the protection of the nation’s sovereignty, while recognizing Ethiopia’s vital role in maintaining regional peace.

In conclusion, Ethiopia’s contribution to regional peacekeeping and its strategic presence in Somalia are indispensable to the stability of the Horn of Africa. A careful and collaborative approach to regional security, particularly in resolving disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia, will be crucial for preventing further fragmentation and ensuring long-term peace and stability in the region.

_____________________________________

Ambassador General Bacha Debele is a seasoned diplomat and military strategist, recognized for his leadership in regional security and Ethiopia’s peacekeeping efforts. With decades of experience, he has played a key role in Ethiopia’s shift from direct military intervention to multilateral peacekeeping, particularly in Somalia. Currently serving as Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Kenya, he continues to be a pivotal figure in advancing Ethiopia’s foreign policy and strengthening its diplomatic presence in the region.